EUR/USD bulls come up for their last breath?
|- EUR/USD holds within familiar ranges following the Fed taper announcement.
- Fed statement inline with expectations, yet transitory language a touch more hawkish.
- All eyes on Powell's presser, the Fed Dec meeting, US data and how hawkish the ECB will be.
EUR/USD was trading around 1.1600 throughout the Federal Reserve event on Wednesday. The outcome was more or less in line with the market's expectations but the Fed has acknowledged in a tweak in its statement that inflation might not be as transitory as expected.
Nevertheless, the price made a fresh high during the chairman's presser, touching 1.1616 at the time of writing as Powell attempts to dial down inflation risks. The range, so far today, has been between 1.1562 and 1.1616.
Fed statement takeaways
A taper announcement was made, something that was well telegraphed in prior Fed communications. In the statement, it maintained the transitory language but changed the wording, from ''reflecting transitory factors'' to, ''factors that are expected to be transitory'':
- Tapering starting November, with monthly reductions of $15 bln.
- Prepared to adjust taper pace ‘as warranted’.
- Interest rate decision actual: 0.25% vs 0.25% previous; est 0.25%.
Fed's chair, Powell's presser
Powell is emphasising that the US is not at maximum employment and he has tried to water down the market's take on the tweak to the 'transitory' verbiage in the statement. The US dollar was sent on the backfoot following his reasoning but overall, the markets are steady and will very quickly move to a focus on US data with the Nonfarm Payrolls just around the corner.
EUR/USD H1 chart
From a technical standpoint, the downside is still vulnerable so long as the price stays within the confines of recent ranges as follows:
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