EUR: Probability of RN winning majority continues to fade – MUFG
|The Euro (EUR) has been holding on to gains against the US dollar at the start of this month, MUFG analysts note.
EUR to continue its volatile wobbling
“After hitting a low of 1.0666 towards the end of last month, EUR/USD initially jumped to a high of 1.0776 on Monday after the release of results from the first round of the French elections triggered a relief rally for EUR, the pair has since fallen back towards the 1.0700-level and recovered back to 1.0800.“
“The market impact has once again been more evident in the government bond market where the yield spread between the 10-year French and German government bonds has narrowed to around 71bps from a high of 82bps towards the end of last month.”
“The easing of the first risk premium priced into French government bonds that had reached the highest levels seen the euro-zone debt crisis back between 2011 and 2012 reflects building investor optimism that the far-right RN party will fall short of winning a majority in parliament.”
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