EUR: More on the recent EUR recovery – Commerzbank
|If you look at the G10 exchange rate movements since October 24 (since the publication of the euro area PMIs), it is striking that, on the one hand, the Euro has been by far the best-performing currency, but on the other hand, it has been the currency that contributed least to the volatility of G10 exchange rates, Commerzbank’s Head of FX and Commodity Research Ulrich Leuchtmann notes.
EUR strength to end sooner or later
“What does it mean when a currency has covered a lot of ground but with low volatility? It cannot have moved much in the opposite direction. Indeed, the euro has appreciated against the G10 average on every single trading day since then.”
“In other words: we are observing a clear trend (for statisticians: a clear deterministic trend component). In a reasonably efficient market, this is not a permanent condition, but an indication that the market is undergoing a significant re-evaluation and is searching for new equilibrium levels for EUR exchange rates.”
“As much as I enjoy EUR strength, I have to admit that this phase should not last forever. At some point, the revaluation of the euro will be complete. I would even consider it quite bold to jump on the bandwagon of idiosyncratic EUR strength at this point.”
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers.