China growth should remain steady – DBS
|This week’s featured insight is GDP Nowcast, which is best viewed as an estimate of real GDP growth based on available economic data and forecasts for the current quarter, DBS’ economists Samuel Tse and Daisy Sharma notes.
GDP growth to remain steady at 4.6% in 4Q24
“Today we focus on China’s real GDP, which slowed from 4.7% YoY in 2Q24 to 4.6% in 3Q24, while sequential growth accelerated from 0.7% QoQ in 2Q24 to 0.9% in 3Q24. Despite net exports remaining a pillar for GDP growth, the decelerated external demand in September stripped away the only bright spot in the economy.”
“Our Nowcast model expects GDP growth to remain steady at 4.6% in 4Q24. The model shows that it will mostly be led by weakness in industrial activity and loans. Retail sales will improve, thanks to positive wealth effect from equity market. Fixed assets investment will stabilize. On external front, exports will moderate slightly while non-oil imports will contract.”
“We expect 2024 GDP to average 5.0% from 5.2% in 2023.”
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