China: 2024 growth target likely reached – Standard Chartered
|Average official manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMIs edged up above 50 in Q4. IP and services production index growth likely remained resilient in December on improved demand. We raise our Q4-2024 GDP growth forecast to 5.3% y/y from 4.8% and 2024 forecast to 5% from 4.8%, Standard Chartered’s economists note.
Growth momentum continued in December
“China’s official manufacturing PMI edged down 0.2pts to 50.1 in December, as production expansion moderated. Meanwhile, the new orders PMI edged up to an eight-month high, suggesting improved demand. The average manufacturing PMI returned to expansionary territory in Q4, the first time since Q1-2023. The non-manufacturing PMI edged up to a nine-month high of 52.2 in December on a rebound in both services and construction activity. The average non-manufacturing PMI edged up in Q4. Seasonally-adjusted GDP growth likely accelerated from Q3’s 0.9% q/q and expanded faster than Q1’s 1.5% q/q, on our estimate.”
“We expect industrial production (IP) and services production index growth to have remained robust in December on improved demand. New and used home sales jumped m/m, according to interim data, sending a positive signal on housing market stabilization. The decline in real-estate investment likely eased. Net exports likely remained the key growth contributor in Q4. The quarterly goods trade surplus likely reached a record-high USD 280bn in Q4 as exports continued to outperform imports. We expect annual average CPI inflation to have stayed at 0.2% in 2024 (versus our previous forecast of 0.3%).”
“We expect CNY loan growth to have slowed further to 7.5% y/y in December. The impact of the debt-to-bond swap programme on corporate loans outstanding likely more than offset an improvement in household loan growth. Meanwhile, total social financing (TSF) growth likely picked up on sustained strong government bond issuance.”
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers.