Australian Dollar remains stronger despite the improved US Dollar, FOMC Minutes awaited
|- The Australian Dollar gains ground due to the release of solid economic data on Wednesday.
- Australia's Retail Sales rose by 0.6% MoM in May, surpassing both the anticipated 0.2% rise and the prior 0.1% gain.
- Fed Chair Jerome Powell wants to see further evidence before cutting interest rates.
The Australian Dollar (AUD) appreciates for the second successive day on Wednesday. This upside is attributed to the Judo Bank's Australia Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) figures, which showed a slight improvement in June.
Australia's Retail Sales, a measure of the country's consumer spending, increased by 0.6% MoM in May, up from the previous month's 0.1% rise. This figure exceeded market expectations of a 0.2% increase.
The AUD/USD pair may limit its upside as the US Dollar (USD) halts its four-day losing streak due to a recovery in yield on a 2-year Treasury bond, which stands at 4.75% at the time of writing. Traders will be looking for further direction from the US ADP Employment Change, ISM Services PMI for June, and the FOMC Minutes, all of which are scheduled for release later on Wednesday.
Daily Digest Market Movers: Australian Dollar appreciates due to higher PMI
- Judo Bank's Australia Services PMI increased to 51.2 MoM, up from the previous month's 51.0, surpassing the forecasted drop to 50.6. Meanwhile, the Composite PMI rose to 50.7 MoM, compared to 50.6 in the previous month.
- China's Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) fell from 54.0 in May to 51.2 in June, according to the latest data released by Caixin on Wednesday. The market forecast was for a 53.4 figure in the reported period.
- The Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell turned slightly dovish on Tuesday. Powell said that the Fed is getting back on the disinflationary path. However, Powell wants to see further evidence before cutting interest rates as the US economy and the labor market remain strong, per Reuters.
- The Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) June monetary policy meeting minutes, released on Tuesday, indicated that the "board judged the case for holding rates steady stronger than hiking." The board emphasized the need to remain vigilant regarding upside risks to inflation, noting that data suggested an upside risk for May's Consumer Price Index (CPI).
- The Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) Index of Commodity Prices fell by 4.1% YoY in June, following an upwardly revised 6.0% decline in the previous month. The June decline marks the mildest deflation in sixteen consecutive months.
- The Melbourne Institute's Monthly Inflation Gauge has heightened concerns that the RBA might raise interest rates again in August. The gauge increased by 0.3% in June, maintaining the same pace as in May, marking the fourth consecutive month of rises and remaining at the highest since January.
- On Tuesday, Chinese state media outlet Securities Daily quoted the chief economist at CITIC Securities, suggesting that the People's Bank of China (PBOC) might consider measures like reducing the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) to inject liquidity into the market. Any potential economic shift in China could notably influence the Australian Dollar (AUD), given the close trade ties between the two nations.
Technical Analysis: Australian Dollar holds ground above 0.6650
The Australian Dollar trades around 0.6670 on Wednesday. The analysis of the daily chart shows a symmetrical triangle, which represents a pause in the trend as traders reach an equilibrium. However, once the price breaks out decisively from the triangle, it would signal a clear directional trend. However, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is slightly above 50 level, indicating a bullish bias.
The AUD/USD pair is likely to test the upper boundary of the symmetrical triangle at around 0.6680, followed by the psychological level of 0.6700. Additional resistance is located at 0.6714, the highest level since January.
On the downside, the AUD/USD pair could find the key support around the lower boundary of the symmetrical triangle at 0.6630, followed by the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 0.6625.
AUD/USD: Daily Chart
Australian Dollar PRICE Today
The table below shows the percentage change of Australian Dollar (AUD) against listed major currencies today. Australian Dollar was the strongest against the Japanese Yen.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.07% | 0.03% | 0.28% | 0.06% | -0.08% | 0.06% | 0.11% | |
| EUR | -0.07% | -0.04% | 0.23% | 0.01% | -0.16% | 0.02% | 0.04% | |
| GBP | -0.03% | 0.04% | 0.27% | 0.03% | -0.12% | 0.06% | 0.08% | |
| JPY | -0.28% | -0.23% | -0.27% | -0.23% | -0.37% | -0.21% | -0.17% | |
| CAD | -0.06% | -0.01% | -0.03% | 0.23% | -0.15% | 0.02% | 0.05% | |
| AUD | 0.08% | 0.16% | 0.12% | 0.37% | 0.15% | 0.17% | 0.20% | |
| NZD | -0.06% | -0.02% | -0.06% | 0.21% | -0.02% | -0.17% | 0.03% | |
| CHF | -0.11% | -0.04% | -0.08% | 0.17% | -0.05% | -0.20% | -0.03% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Australian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent AUD (base)/USD (quote).
RBA FAQs
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) sets interest rates and manages monetary policy for Australia. Decisions are made by a board of governors at 11 meetings a year and ad hoc emergency meetings as required. The RBA’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means an inflation rate of 2-3%, but also “..to contribute to the stability of the currency, full employment, and the economic prosperity and welfare of the Australian people.” Its main tool for achieving this is by raising or lowering interest rates. Relatively high interest rates will strengthen the Australian Dollar (AUD) and vice versa. Other RBA tools include quantitative easing and tightening.
While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for currencies since it lowers the value of money in general, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Moderately higher inflation now tends to lead central banks to put up their interest rates, which in turn has the effect of attracting more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in the case of Australia is the Aussie Dollar.
Macroeconomic data gauges the health of an economy and can have an impact on the value of its currency. Investors prefer to invest their capital in economies that are safe and growing rather than precarious and shrinking. Greater capital inflows increase the aggregate demand and value of the domestic currency. Classic indicators, such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can influence AUD. A strong economy may encourage the Reserve Bank of Australia to put up interest rates, also supporting AUD.
Quantitative Easing (QE) is a tool used in extreme situations when lowering interest rates is not enough to restore the flow of credit in the economy. QE is the process by which the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) prints Australian Dollars (AUD) for the purpose of buying assets – usually government or corporate bonds – from financial institutions, thereby providing them with much-needed liquidity. QE usually results in a weaker AUD.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse of QE. It is undertaken after QE when an economic recovery is underway and inflation starts rising. Whilst in QE the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) purchases government and corporate bonds from financial institutions to provide them with liquidity, in QT the RBA stops buying more assets, and stops reinvesting the principal maturing on the bonds it already holds. It would be positive (or bullish) for the Australian Dollar.
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