Australian Dollar soft as a cautious market mood benefits the USD
|- US Dollar recovers amid conflict in the Middle East.
- US NFP data last week tempered aggressive easing bets on the Fed.
- Reserve Bank of Australia's Meeting Minutes of September policy meeting might stop the bleeding.
The AUD/USD pair declined by 0.50% to 0.6765 on Monday, pressured by a stronger US Dollar and concerns over geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.
The Australian economy faces an uncertain future amid conflicting economic signals. Despite healthy employment levels and strong consumer spending, inflation remains stubbornly high. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has adopted a cautious approach. This week’s minutes will be closely followed.
Daily digest market movers: Australian Dollar declines, while US Dollar gains
- AUD declined amid Middle East tensions, pressuring risk-sensitive currencies due to rising oil prices.
- USD strengthened with the DXY near 102.00, boosted by strong upcoming US Nonfarm Payrolls data and cooling easing bets on the Fed.
- The likelihood of a 50-basis-point reduction in November or December has diminished to zero, while there is only a 90% chance of a 25-basis-point cut next month being factored in.
- Even with robust economic data, the market continues to expect a total easing of 125 basis points over the next year.
- Fed speakers and Consumer Price Index (CPI) data from the US will guide the pair’s trajectory this week.
AUD/USD technical outlook: Pair extends losses, 20-day SMA gone
The AUD/USD extends its losses, and indicators are weak with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) deep in negative terrain. In addition, the loss of the 20-day SMA has worsened the outlook for the pair.
Supports line up at 0.6750, 0.6730 and 0.6700, while resistances are seen at 0.6800, 0.6815 and 0.6850.
RBA FAQs
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) sets interest rates and manages monetary policy for Australia. Decisions are made by a board of governors at 11 meetings a year and ad hoc emergency meetings as required. The RBA’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means an inflation rate of 2-3%, but also “..to contribute to the stability of the currency, full employment, and the economic prosperity and welfare of the Australian people.” Its main tool for achieving this is by raising or lowering interest rates. Relatively high interest rates will strengthen the Australian Dollar (AUD) and vice versa. Other RBA tools include quantitative easing and tightening.
While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for currencies since it lowers the value of money in general, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Moderately higher inflation now tends to lead central banks to put up their interest rates, which in turn has the effect of attracting more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in the case of Australia is the Aussie Dollar.
Macroeconomic data gauges the health of an economy and can have an impact on the value of its currency. Investors prefer to invest their capital in economies that are safe and growing rather than precarious and shrinking. Greater capital inflows increase the aggregate demand and value of the domestic currency. Classic indicators, such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can influence AUD. A strong economy may encourage the Reserve Bank of Australia to put up interest rates, also supporting AUD.
Quantitative Easing (QE) is a tool used in extreme situations when lowering interest rates is not enough to restore the flow of credit in the economy. QE is the process by which the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) prints Australian Dollars (AUD) for the purpose of buying assets – usually government or corporate bonds – from financial institutions, thereby providing them with much-needed liquidity. QE usually results in a weaker AUD.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse of QE. It is undertaken after QE when an economic recovery is underway and inflation starts rising. Whilst in QE the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) purchases government and corporate bonds from financial institutions to provide them with liquidity, in QT the RBA stops buying more assets, and stops reinvesting the principal maturing on the bonds it already holds. It would be positive (or bullish) for the Australian Dollar.
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