Australia: Q4 GDP likely to print 0.5% figure - Nomura
|Andrew Ticehurst, Research Analyst at Nomura, suggests that with the release of partial data for Australian economy this week covering inventories, profits, net exports and government spending, their forecast for tomorrow’s Q4 GDP print is unchanged, at 0.5% q-o-q, 2.5% y-o-y.
Key Quotes
“A few weeks ago, consensus was calling 0.7% q-o-q, but shifted lower recently. Today’s releases on net exports and government spending were a fraction better than we expected and look to have taken out some of the downside risk we previously flagged.”
“We expect the national accounts to show growth driven by private consumption (0.65% q-o-q), plant and equipment investment (2% q-o-q), a slight run-up in inventories (0.1pp) and another big rise in government spending (1.9% q-o-q), with offsets coming from dwelling construction (-2% q-o-q) and net exports (-0.5pp). We again emphasise that some of the softness in Q4 GDP comes from temporary disruptions to coal exports. We expect coal exports to rebound in Q1 and forecast a stronger 0.8% q-o-q rise in Q1 GDP.”
“We also expect strength in the retail and construction sectors; a modest (0.1% q-o-q) rise in the terms of trade; fairly soft readings for wage growth – with the wages bill up by 1% q-o-q but employment growth rising ~0.75% q-o-q, the national accounts measure of wages per employee look to have risen by ~0.25% q-o-q; and soft readings on productivity (with GDP rising ~0.5% q-o-q but employment growth rising ~0.75% q-o-q).”
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers.