AUD/USD: Likely to trade in a range between 0.6355 and 0.6415 – UOB Group
|Australian Dollar (AUD) is likely to trade in a range between 0.6355 and 0.6415. In the longer run, AUD has to break and remain below 0.6350 before further decline can be expected, UOB Group’s FX analyst Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann note.
Below 0.6350 before AUD to decline further
24-HOUR VIEW: “Following AUD’s sharp decline to 0.6366 on Tuesday, we pointed out yesterday (Wednesday) that it ‘could weaken further.’ We also pointed out that ‘given the deeply oversold conditions, it remains to be seen if AUD can break below 0.6350.’ Although AUD broke below 0.6350, it rebounded from a low of 0.6337, closing at 0.6369, slightly lower by 0.14%. The rebound in oversold conditions and slowing momentum suggests that AUD is likely to trade in a range today, probably between 0.6355 and 0.6415.”
1-3 WEEKS VIEW: “Yesterday (11 Dec), when AUD was at 0.6380, we highlighted that “while downward momentum is beginning to build again, it is not enough to signal a sustained decline.” We also highlighted that AUD ‘has to break and remain below the significant support at 0.6350 before further weakness can be expected.’ The condition for a sustained decline was not met, as AUD rebounded from 0.6337 to close at 0.6369. That said, there is still a chance for AUD to break clearly below 0.6350 as long as 0.6435 (‘strong resistance’ level was at 0.6445 yesterday) is not breached.”
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