AUD/USD extends its upside above 0.6650 on softer US Dollar, Investors await Australian GDP data
|- AUD/USD trades in positive territory for the third consecutive day around 0.6655 on Monday.
- The US PCE index rose 0.3% MoM in April, matching the expectation.
- The Australian monthly CPI inflation triggered the speculation that the RBA might need to hike again to curb the inflationary pressure.
The AUD/USD pair extends the rally near 0.6655 during the early Asian session on Monday. The uptick of the pair is bolstered by the weaker US Dollar (USD) after the US Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index (PCE) report showed that inflation cooled faster than expected in April. Investors will shift their attention to Australia’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for Q1 on Wednesday and the US Nonfarm Payrolls on Friday.
The US PCE index, the Fed’s preferred measure of underlying US inflation, rose 0.3% MoM in April, matching the expectation, the Commerce Department reported on Friday. On an annual basis, the PCE figure increases by 2.7% YoY, compared to an advance of 2.7% in March. The Core PCE, excluding the volatile food and energy, climbed 0.2% MoM in April as compared to a 0.3% gain in March. On an annual basis, the core PCE price index jumped 2.8% for the third consecutive month.
The April US PCE inflation data indicated inflation in the US remains stubbornly high as in March, raising doubt on how soon it will be able to cut interest rates. Traders were not pricing in rate cuts for the Fed’s June or July meeting, seeing a 50% odds of Fed rate cuts in September, according to the CME FedWatch tool. Fed officials emphasized that they would wait for more evidence that inflation is easing before moving to cut rates and that patience would be needed. Nonetheless, the higher-for-longer US rate narrative might support the Greenback and cap the upside for the pair in the near term.
On the other hand, the Australian Dollar (AUD) attracts some buyers as the monthly inflation rate rose to 3.6%, triggering speculation that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) might need to hike interest rates again. Australia’s monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 3.6% YoY in April, beating the estimation of 3.4% and the previous reading of 3.5%.
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