AUD/USD ascends on the back of Fed’s dovish bets intensifying
|- The AUD/USD is trading closer to the 0.6840 level, in highs since July.
- Markets are forecasting six Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2024.
- Traders also speculate on a potential interest rate cut in January, which applies pressure on the USD.
- US yields declined to multi-month lows.
In Wednesday's trading session, the AUD/USD is seeing gains, currently at the 0.6843 level. These movements are largely driven by the intensifying dovish bets on the Federal Reserve (Fed), which applies pressure on the US Dollar. As a result, the Australian dollar is outpacing its US counterpart at a quiet end of the year.
For the next Fed meeting in January, based on the FedWatch tool by the CME Group, investors are betting on an 85.5% likelihood that the bank will maintain its current interest rate steady, but they also place 14.5% bets on first-rate cuts.
In addition, markets are anticipating six interest rate cuts in 2024 and seem to be disregarding almost every statement made by the members of the US Federal Reserve following December's interest rate decision and the soft readings of the Consumer Price and Personal Consumption Expenditures indexes from November. In that sense, as investors remain confident that the American bank will take a dovish approach next year, the US Dollar may see further downsides.
In line with that, US Treasury yields is on a downswing, which makes the Greenback lose interest. The 2-year rate is seen at 4.26%, its lowest since May, while the 5-year and 10-year rates are both recorded at 3.84%, also in multi-month lows.
AUD/USD levels to watch
The indicators on the daily chart reflect a dominantly bullish momentum for the AUD/USD. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) trading in the overbought territory reflects that the uptrend is quite strong, typically confirming that buyers are in control.
Adding weight to this bullish view is the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram. The rising green bars suggest that momentum currently favors the buyers. This is usually a strong sign of an ongoing upward price shift and might entice more buyers to the market, thereby further fuelling the bullish momentum.
The pair's position above the 20,100,200-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs) further illustrates that the bulls are also in control of the broader time horizon. This generally points to a more robust and enduring bullish trend, which could see the pair climb even higher in the coming sessions.
However, the overbought conditions as indicated by the RSI, while a sign of current buying momentum, also serve as a cautionary signal. It implies that prices have been increasing robustly, and a short-term pullback might be on the horizon for traders to lock in gains.
Support Levels: 0.6800,0.6760, 0.6730.
Resistance Levels: 0.6850, 0.6870, 0.6900.
AUD/USD daily chart
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