Holders of $600 billion worth of BTC are asking for Bitcoin price to rally not by 15% but by 96%

• Bitcoin price is retracing its steps after hitting $35,500 this past week, even as the market awaits a recovery.
• Even though the investors might be extremely bullish for even a short-term rise, 88% of all BTC HODLers are awaiting a rise to at least the ATH of $67,789.
• Their conviction is long-term, hence why the network has been noting less than $2 billion worth of selling/realized profits this past week.

Bitcoin price, following the recent rally, is moving sideways at the moment. The likeliness of a downtrend from here would stem from the possibility of investors looking to book profits, but surprisingly, that sentiment is not relayed in the case of 17.2 million BTC.

Daily Digest Market Movers: Bitcoin investors are HODLing fiercely

The recent rally in Bitcoin price incentivized some people to sell their BTC for profits while others are holding on, awaiting a climb back to $40,000. This optimism comes from the hope of a spot Bitcoin ETF being approved soon enough. Thus, we could see some significant profit booking around $40,000.

However, that does not even begin to relay the actual picture and what Bitcoin investors actually want. According to the HODL waves metric on Glassnode, the supply of BTC aged between three months and ten years has been unmoved despite the 32% rally that took place towards the second half of October.

These BTCs represent about 88% of the entire circulating supply of Bitcoin, amounting to over 17.285 million BTC worth nearly $600 billion.

Bitcoin HODL waves

As noted by former crypto fund manager Ulrik Lykke, 

“This static supply signifies robust conviction among holders. It illustrates a collective long-term vision over short-term gains, hinting at a maturing market rather than just a trading vessel.

This conviction is verified in the fact that following the rally when the market was expecting considerable profit booking, less than $2 billion worth of BTC was sold for profits in the entire week. Since then, the realized profits have returned to their average, confirming that BTC holders are waiting for a much bigger price tag to sell their supply at.

Bitcoin realized profits

The most likely figure that they would consider selling their assets at is once Bitcoin marks a fresh all-time high. Until the ATH is broken, their HODLing will continue. This places their target price 96% above the market price of Bitcoin of $34,684.

The 96% rally would send the cryptocurrency to $67,789, which would potentially trigger some intensive selling from these long-term investors.

BTC/USD 3-day chart

Technical Analysis: Bitcoin price micro outlook remains unchanged

Bitcoin price noted some minor decline following the release of the US Nonfarm Payrolls report on Friday, but for the most part, the cryptocurrency is staying put. As long as BTC does not fall through the support line at $33,901, the sideways movement could lead to the uptrend being resumed.

This sets the next Bitcoin price target at $40,000, which would require BTC first to flip the $36,833 resistance into a support floor. 

BTC/USD 1-day chart

Nevertheless, if the uptrend does not resume soon and the investors' conviction of another rally breaks, profit booking could send Bitcoin price into a descent. If the $33,901 support is invalidated, the cryptocurrency could test $31,507 as support. Losing this line would invalidate the bullish thesis, leaving Bitcoin vulnerable to falling to $30,000.

Read more - Bitcoin price spikes in response to US Nonfarm Payrolls for October

(This story was corrected on November 6 at 12:24 GMT to say, in the third bullet point, that less than $2 billion worth of BTC was sold for profits in the entire week, not less than $1 billion.)