What Bitcoin bear market? BTC price closely copying old halving cycles
|Bitcoin (BTC $30,211) price action is right on track when it comes to sealing new all-time highs, new data suggests.
A suite of price metrics from on-chain analytics firm Glassnode released on April 11 hints that Bitcoin’s current halving cycle is playing out in classic style.
BTC price closely resembles prior halving cycles
With BTC/USD up over 70% in 2023 and far from its $15,600 lows in November 2022, analysts are already considering the role of next year’s block subsidy halving.
Set to cut the amount of BTC miners “mint” per block from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC; the upcoming halving represents an emission decrease exactly like others that preceded it.
Bets are therefore increasing over the impact on Bitcoin price performance, likewise copying past halvings, with the event itself acting as a springboard for all-time highs.
A look at Glassnode’s figures underscores the similarities of the current halving cycle to previous ones. Despite comparatively muted gains in percentage terms, BTC/USD is now trending upward following what increasingly appears to be a bear market bottom.
Bitcoin’s price performance since halving. Source: Glassnode
Since its latest all-time high, tracking price action likewise places this cycle firmly within the historical context.
Bitcoin’s price performance since all-time highs. Source: Glassnode
Meanwhile, in an analysis late last month, data resource Ecoinometrics offered additional insight into recent performance.
New all-time highs are also due, it agreed, bar a macroeconomic recession distorting the roadmap.
“Bitcoin’s price action suggests a bottom has formed, but with an impending global recession, it’s premature to assume,” it reasoned.
Economic uncertainty will increase demand for safe havens, but Bitcoin still trades very much like a risk asset.
Bitcoin’s price performance after the third halving. Source: Ecoinometrics
Up only to $180,000?
As Cointelegraph reported, the belief that the 2024 halving cycle will continue the good times has gone nowhere during the latest bear market.
Filbfilb, a co-founder of the trading suite DecenTrader, recently doubled down on his conviction that Bitcoin’s all-time high next cycle will come in 2025 and see a BTC price tag of around $180,000.
He noted that as time passes, Bitcoin price gains will see a “tapering effect” — smaller comparative gains in percentage terms with each cycle.
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