Week Ahead: Macroeconomic events unlikely to spoil BTC ETF victory march
|Last week was a blast for Bitcoin spot ETF-related developments. Here is a crude summary:
- Blackrock’s listing on the DTCC website was noticed, which was then removed but relisted later. The IBTC ticker was also given to Blackrock’s spot Bitcoin ETF. DTCC later revealed that this listing has been present on the website since August.
- Grayscale’s ruling was finalized, and the company submitted a fresh filing for converting its GBTC product into spot ETF.
Lately, the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has been on the back foot after losing multiple crypto-related lawsuits. To pile up, the Grayscale vs. SEC lawsuit has also seen a development favoring Grayscale. As a result, the next ETF decision deadline in January 2024 will be key. Crypto investors are expecting approval of spot Bitcoin ETF soon.
Here’s what that looks like on the Bitcoin (BTC) price chart.
BTC/USD 15-min chart
More on Bitcoin spot ETF
BREAKING: BlackRock to pay $2.5 million penalty after SEC charges it with failing to disclose investment
Bitcoin price shakes, DTCC website crashes after BlackRock iShares BTC Trust delisting
IBTC back on DTCC list; SEC charges BlackRock with failing to disclose investment
Macroeconomic outlook
While the ETF hype has subsided over the weekend, investors can expect more volatility this week due to key macroeconomic events.
- November 1 - Fed Interest Rate decision
- November 3 - Nonfarm Payrolls
It is clear from the CME FedWatch Tool that there is a 96.2% probability that the Fed will keep the policy rate at current levels of 5.25% to 5.50%. Hence, November 1 is unlikely to hold any surprises.
CME FedWatch Tool
The Nonfarm Payrolls, however, is a different case altogether and is something that investors need to watch out for, especially considering last month’s jobs report, which came in hotter-than-expected.
What to expect from Bitcoin price?
From a technical standpoint, the 2023 Bitcoin (BTC) price action looks very similar to what was noticed in 2020. After the pause in rally in April, BTC consolidated and kickstarted an explosive rally. If history repeats, then Bitcoin could easily retrace to $40,000 and $45,000 by the end of 2023 and early 2024.
If Bitcoin spot ETF is approved, it will serve as a tailwind and help bring the Bitcoin fractal scenario into a reality.
BTC 2020 vs. 2023 fractal
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