Veteran trader sets target for next Bitcoin bull market high
|- Bitcoin halvings have historically aligned with the halfway points of past bull market cycles.
- Peter Brandt predicts Bitcoin could reach a high of around $130K to $150K.
- New market players could alter market dynamics.
Bitcoin (BTC) is up 2% on Monday after veteran trader Peter Brandt set a high bar for potential BTC's new all-time high in a recent analysis.
Bitcoin could see a new all-time high soon
Bitcoin's price has followed a somewhat mixed movement since the halving event on April 19. Several investors had earlier speculated a quick rally to a new all-time high immediately after the halving. However, Bitcoin faced a steep decline in early May before experiencing a recent rally spurred by the SEC's spot ETH ETF approval on May 20.
Bitcoin halving is a 50% reduction in BTC's emission rate every four years. The recent halving decreased Bitcoin's emission rate to 3.125 BTC.
According to popular trader Peter Brandt, Bitcoin could be on its way to a significant high, considering its historical price movement before and after a halving event.
Also read: Bitcoin sets the stage for a potential “destruction of fiat currency“
"More specifically, the number of weeks from the start of each bull market cycle (the low following a 75%-plus decline) to the Halving dates has been almost equal to the number of weeks from the Halving dates to the subsequent bull market highs," said Brandt.
He further explained how this analysis suggests the next bull market high will occur around late August/early September 2025.
BTC historical price movement
"...it should be noted that the highs of past bull markets line up quite well against an inverted parabolic curve. Should this tendency also continue, the high of this bull market cycle could be in the $130,000 to $150,000 range. The X on the chart marks the probable high date and price level," he said.
However, he cautioned users that this analysis is one of his many interpretations of Bitcoin's future price movement.
Brandt's prediction also aligns with an earlier analysis from FXStreet analyst Akash Girimath. According to Girimath, Bitcoin usually reaches a new all-time on an average of 410 days after a halving event.
However, Girimath also noted that Bitcoin's current price movement exhibited similar trends to the bull cycle of late 2020 into 2021. A scenario that could see BTC crash below $60,000 to around $45,000 to cover market inefficiencies before rising again to a new all-time high. As noted in a previous analysis, "this is typical of previous halving events, where Bitcoin would lag a few months post-halving before gaining momentum."
The introduction of new market players—traditional financial firms with high liquidity—following the launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs could also change market dynamics. Hence, an over reliance on past historical price movements may not always yield the best results.
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