Ripple Price Analysis: XRP sits at a critical point to determine its future
|- XRP is currently trading at $0.241 and stands at a crucial make or break point.
- The digital asset has been trading sideways for the past four days.
The month of September hasn't been the greatest for the cross-border currency. XRP lost roughly $3 billion in market capitalization over the past month. The digital asset currently stands at a crucial point that will determine its short-term future.
The bearish outlook for XRP
Several indicators and patterns are suggesting that XRP's price could be looking at further downside action in the short-term.
XRP/USD daily chart
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On the daily chart, XRP formed a descending parallel channel and seemed to have been rejected from the channel's upper boundary. On September 2, the last rejection made the digital asset drop by more than 20% within two days.
XRP Holders Distribution Chart
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The confirmation of the newest rejection is further confirmed by the holders distribution chart provided by Santiment. Looking at this chart, we can observe a notable drop in the number of whales with at least 10,000,000 XRP coins from 313 on September 26 to 309 now. A decrease in the number of whales suggests weakness and potentially selling pressure if exchange inflow is high.
XRP Exchange Inflow
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Unfortunately, looking at the exchange inflow metric, we can see a significant spike in the last 24 hours. Both metrics together seem to suggest that perhaps some whales are getting ready to sell their holdings, increasing the selling pressure.
A rejection from the upper boundary of the descending parallel channel on the daily chart would most likely take XRP down to the 200-SMA at $0.216.
The bullish outlook for XRP
Using the same daily chart, although it seems XRP price is getting rejected from the upper trendline, it has also climbed above the 50-SMA. In fact, this SMA is now acting as a support level.
XRP/USD daily chart
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If XRP bulls can push the price above the upper trendline with a clear breakout, the digital asset can easily reach the 100-SMA at $0.26 but could have a maximum target price of up to $0.30.
XRP/USD 4-hour chart
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Furthermore, on the 4-hour chart, the MACD seems to be ready for a bullish cross within the next few hours. The last bull cross on September 24 preceded a notable 10% price surge. XRP has defended the 100-SMA support level, and it's trying to stay above the 50-MA and also convert it into support.
If XRP can clearly turn the 50-MA into support, the odds of a breakout above the daily descending parallel channel will be greater.
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