Privacy coin Monero cooks up potential breakout, XMR price to target 20% rise

• Monero price coils up inside a falling wedge setup, forecasting a bullish breakout. 
• A decisive flip of the $153 hurdle will trigger a buying spree, propelling XMR by 20% to $187.
• A breakdown of the $143 support level will invalidate the bullish thesis for the privacy coin

Monero price shows a clear consolidative structure, a breakout from which often favors bulls. But the overall sentiment of the market is far from bullish, considering the Silvergate FUD. Additionally, on-chain metrics reveal that roughly 50,000 BTC, worth $1 billion, were recently sent to Coinbase, further adding weight to the gloomy market outlook. 

More Crypto News: Silk Road Bitcoins worth $1 billion move to Coinbase, another sell-off on the horizon?

Monero price waits for the opportune time

Monero price formed a local top at $187 on January 14 and set up another swing high at the same level in an attempt to move higher. The failure to push through signaled a potential takeover from bears. Since this point, XMR has shed 20% and it trades at $149 at the time of writing. 

In its descent, Monero price setup multiple lower lows and lower highs, as seen in the chart below. Connecting these swing points using trend lines reveals a falling wedge pattern. A decisive breakout above this setup often triggers a run-up that targets a retest of the previous swing highs.

In Monero’s case, the most pronounced swing high is at $169, where a lot of buy-stops are likely to be resting. Additionally, the presence of a Fair Value Gap (FVG), extending from $168 to $170, makes it a better target for bulls.

However, for this impressive upswing to kick-start, Monero price needs to overcome the immediate hurdle at $153. A successful flip of this resistance level into a support floor will provide sidelined buyers with the required confidence to step in. In such a case, investors can expect XMR to trigger a 10% move to $179.

In a highly bullish case, this ascent could push Monero price to tag the local top and collect the buy-stop liquidity at $187. 

XMR/USDT 1-day chart

As bullish as the Monero price setup seems, investors should avoid taking a premature step into opening long positions. The sell-stops resting below $143 are crucial and are likely to be swept before upswing kick-starts. 

If the buyers lose control during the sell-stop liquidity raid, resulting in flipping this hurdle into a support floor, this would invalidate the bullish thesis. In such a case, Monero price could slide 3% and tag the next liquidity pool at $139.