Gillian Lynch, head of EU at Gemini: “The next phase of crypto growth will be exponential”

• Gemini’s head of EU focuses on regulation as the most important step for cryptocurrency growth.
• Bitcoin ETF approval signals the change of stance by the US Securities and Exchange Commission, Lynch says.
• Bitcoin price prediction to $100K at the end of the year still holds, she says.

Gillian Lynch is the Head of Ireland and EU at Gemini, the US crypto exchange founded by Cameron and Tyler Winklevoss. FXStreet interviewed her during the European Blockchain Convention 2024 in Barcelona, where Lynch expressed her optimism about the crypto industry as regulation and institutional acknowledgment of the space grows around the world.

Gillian Lynch, Head of EU and Ireland at Gemini, during the interview at the European Blockchain Convention 2024.

Q: Gemini is now registered in many countries in Europe. Is this an effort mainly targeted at institutional investors or also retail traders?

Our audience is very much a mix of institutional and retail. When Cameron and Tyler started the company 10 years ago, it was built for institutions before they broadened it into retail two or three years ago. So both spaces are a priority and Europe is, within Gemini’s growth strategy for the next three to five years, a huge one. 

Adoption has grown a lot, we're now looking at ratios of one in four people owning crypto. When I joined the company, it was one in 10. Regulation plays a huge part because it allows companies like Gemini to understand the guardrails. You know what you can and can't do. This is why you have seen a huge influx of companies into Europe. 

Q: You mention the improvements in crypto regulation here in Europe, what is the contrast with the US? 

What we have seen in the United States is regulation by enforcement. When you don't know what the guardrails are, it is very difficult to operate. Using an analogy, if you're driving down the motorway, a cop pulls you over, you don’t know why, and he says you're going at excess speed, but there was no speed limit on the motorway. It's a little bit like that. 

But now, with the Bitcoin ETFs, the regulator in the US is beginning to come back from their original stance, which they need to do, because crypto is not going away. If it is regulation by enforcement, companies will reduce their investment, which we have benefited here in Europe with more investment. 

So, I think MiCA is the template that most regions will look at. Globally, we will see regulation, which is very important to protect consumers. Crypto is money, you are protecting people's money. When our founders set up Gemini, they focused on two things: that crypto would play a part in the financial ecosystem going forward and that regulation was needed. From day one, we have engaged with regulators globally, and now we are starting to see that, which is great.

Q: In the past, we have seen some bad actors taking the industry a step back before regulation came. Do you still see a risk of bad behavior hitting crypto? 

There will always be a risk of bad behavior and bad actors, and it just depends on how quick regulation can catch up with innovation. Crypto is always moving at such a fast pace and regulation is always a step behind. Even with MiCA, we're going to need version two of that, because it doesn't cover everything. But it's a brilliant start. What we are seeing is the crypto community welcoming regulation, as we acknowledge that what happened in 2022 (FTX bankruptcy, among other collapses within the industry) impacted the whole industry, and we went back almost a year or two. Now, it's about rebuilding trust again. So, education and regulation are a huge part of that. 

SEC is slowly getting there, regulation will come in the US

Q: What do you think will happen with the SEC crackdown on several players in the industry? Do you think the US election coming up is going to affect that?

The biggest thing to take from the American election is that crypto is a topic. That is already phenomenal. No matter what the outcome, what the industry hopes is that somebody that is pro crypto will be in power, which has to happen, as momentum is behind the industry now. The fact that they have approved the [spot Bitcoin and Ethereum] ETFs, they are getting there, but it's not going to come overnight. Regulators don't change just like that. There's a significant pent up demand in the States, people want to be educated about which industry players they can trust, so the regulator role is crucial. 

Q: Do you think Gary Gensler should be gone from the SEC?

I won't comment on specifics for several reasons. I am not an American citizen, and Gemini is not political. Nevertheless, whoever is in charge, with the current momentum we have, will follow through, you will see them change anyway. 

Q: Talking about momentum, the approval of spot ETFs for Bitcoin and Ethereum in the US has been a little bit flatter than expected.

Well, if you look at the early takeoff, there were huge inflows. If you compare these assets to any traditional assets, there are always going to be inflows and outflows. In the last week, we have seen significant inflows again, linked to the fact that there are now options as well. You are just now seeing it as part of traditional finance. ETFs are going to be part of the crypto suite of products, ETPs here in Europe will also catch up now. 

There is good demand. Inflows and outflows will always happen, I wouldn't read too much into it. If you look at the underlying assets, Bitcoin is holding its value. And, like any other traditional investments, economic circumstances globally will have an impact and you'll see inflows and outflows.

Bitcoin price to $100K? Huge crypto momentum can defy global economics

Q: What's your take about the general crypto market situation? Are we just on a plateau, or is it a retracement? Are you bullish for the next year?

Yes, I think we are at the start of the next phase. The crypto industry is growing. The next phase of growth is going to be exponential. Regulation like MiCA would have not happened if crypto was not seen as systemic, if it was not going to play a huge part in the financial ecosystem. The opportunities are huge, and the bit that we haven't practiced yet is payments. How does it become a part of your day to day? We still see it more as an investment vehicle, but let me come back to something my nephew said to me when I told him I was going to work in Gemini, he said, “come back to me when I could pay for something with it”, and that's the reality.

Q: Crypto fundamentals are different from what moves traditional markets. How can exchanges or brokers like yours help traders understand how the market works?

You are never going to tell a trader what to buy or what not to buy. For active traders, our value proposition is about giving them real time information and a very slick user interface and a reasonable price point, they are not expecting us to be the cheapest. They expect value from what we are offering. And then it’s about maturity in the industry, about finding the source of truth out there. Most traders come from trading backgrounds, so they'll find their sources of information.

Q: Do you have a price target for Bitcoin in one year?

At the start of the year, I said we would get to $100K by the end of the year. I still hold onto that prediction. Positivity and momentum in the United States is huge. That being said, you can't come through global economic circumstances, so there's a lot of uncertainty as well. But we have seen that people see crypto as a hedge for inflation, which is a huge use case. So I think if we see inflation going up again, I'd still stand by my prediction.