Cronos price likely to rally 20%

• Cronos price finds support around the weekly candlestick close at $0.106 and the 50-day EMA at $0.108.
• On-chain data suggests that CRO’s Network Realized Profit/Loss metric showed a capitulation event on June 4. 
• A weekly candlestick close below $0.101 would invalidate the bullish thesis.

Cronos (CRO) price stabilizes around the weekly candlestick close and 50-day EMA, indicating strong support. On-chain data reveals a market capitulation event, with certain whales capitalizing on the downturn to accumulate CRO.

Cronos price upside looks promising 

Cronos experienced a significant decline of 43% from its early March swing high of $0.184 to $0.105 in early June. This crash has put CRO to stabilize above the 50-day EMA at $0.108 and the weekly support at $0.106. If this support confluence remains intact, CRO could rebound by 20%, targeting its weekly resistance at $0.129.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has briefly slipped below the 50 mean level, while the Awesome Oscillator (AO) is on its way to doing the same. If bulls are indeed making a comeback, then both momentum indicators need to maintain their positions above their respective mean levels. Such a development would add a tailwind to the recovery rally.

CRO/USDT 1-day chart

Based on IntoTheBlock's In/Out of the Money Map (IOMAP), nearly 4,940 addresses accumulated 1.29 billion CRO tokens at an average price of $0.111. These investors bought CRO between $0.109 and $0.112, and are likely to accumulate more if the price dips into the area. 

From a technical analysis perspective, the $0.108 support level mentioned coincides with the IOMAP findings, making this zone a key reversal zone to watch.

CRO IOMAP chart

Santiment’s Network Realized Profit/Loss (NPL) indicator provides daily network-level Return On Investment (ROI) data based on a coin’s on-chain transaction volume, offering insights into market sentiment. Sharp spikes in a coin’s NPL suggest holders are selling at significant profits, while steep dips indicate holders are realizing losses, potentially signaling panic sell-offs and investor capitulation.

For CRO, the NPL indicator surged from -20,3520 on May 31 to -2.14 million on June 4, correlating with an 11% price decline. This negative trend suggests holders, on average, are realizing losses, hinting at panic sell-offs and investor capitulation.

However, following this period of realized losses, the Whale Transaction count metric experienced a notable increase, signaling a potential buy-the-dip scenario and indicating renewed investor confidence in CRO.

CRO Network Network Realized Profit/Loss chart

Despite the bullish signals from both on-chain data and technical analysis, if CRO’s weekly candlestick breaches below $0.101, the outlook would turn bearish. Such a scenario might trigger a 9% decline to $0.091, which serves as the weekly support level.