Bitcoin Weekly Forecast: BTC correction started, prepare for a long descent
|- Bitcoin has started the correction; more sell-off may be ahead.
- The long-term fundamental picture remains strong for BTC.
- The technical indicators imply that BTC may hit bottom around $13,000.
Bitcoin has reversed all the gains from the previous week and retreated below $18,000 amid the deepest weekly decline since the end of August. The pioneer digital currency price touched a new historical high at $19,915 on December 1, but the upside momentum faded away on approach to the critical $20,000.
At the time of writing, BTC is changing hands at $17,900, down over 5% on a week-to-week basis. Since the beginning of December, the coin has lost over 10% of its value. Bitcoin's market share reduced to 62.9%.
Miners exacerbate the sell-off
It seems that the most recent Bitcoin sell-off could have been caused by miners selling large quantities of Bitcoin on exchanges. According to the blockchain data provider Cryptoquant, BTC Miners' Position Index reached the highest level in three months, meaning that they are cashing out on their assets. The same happened in September right before Bitcoin's sharp sell-off from around $12,000 to $10,000.
Considering numerous bearish signals, including the potential distribution of funds to Mt. Gox users, the bearish momentum may start snowballing into the end of the year.
Read also: Three reasons why Bitcoin price is about to crash
In the long run, Bitcoin is still a buy
The long-term fundamentals remain mostly positive for the cryptocurrency market. Institutional investors continue pouring money into digital assets, while the regulated service providers embrace the new tools and adapt their product offerings to cater to the growing demand from the customers.
Thus, Fidelity plans to enable cash loans backed by Bitcoins. The asset manager will target hedge funds, Bitcoin miners, and other BTC investors who want to raise money against their cryptocurrency assets. They provide these new services in partnership with the cryptocurrency startup BlockFi.
BBVA, the second-largest bank in Spain, will also offer cryptocurrency trading and custody services for European customers. The company confirmed that it had faced some regulatory issues that delayed the launch. Currently, it is waiting for approval from the Swiss Financial Market Supervisory Authority (FINMA).
This development provides further evidence that the market is transforming from a retail place, where people discuss buying pizza for Bitcoins, into a sophisticated and tech-savvy part of a global financial industry.
Technical indicators send bearish signals
Following strong bearish momentum during the week, Bitcoin is vulnerable to further losses now. At least two technical indicators imply that the downside correction has just started.
First, the sell signal of the TD Sequential indicator in the form of a green nine candlestick on the monthly chart may be confirmed by a red candlestick. In this case, the price may continue moving down from one to four candlesticks, with the local support created by November low at $13,1000. The sell-off will represent a 20-30% correction from the current bullish movement.
Second, Parabolic SAR has reversed on the monthly time frame, confirming the signal produced by TD Sequential. This indicator highlights the direction of the asset movement and helps identify the reversal points.
BTC, monthly chart
Meanwhile, on-chain data implies that BTC faces stiff resistance above the current price. According to IntoTheBlock's In/Out of the Money Around Price (IOMAP) metric, over 800,000 addresses previously purchased over 550,000 BTC between the current price and $18,300. This barrier may slow down the recovery trigger another selling wave.
Bitcoin In/Out of the Money Around Price
On the other hand, the support areas pale in comparison to resistance zones. A cluster of 300,000 addresses purchased about 400,000 BTC on approach to $17,500. If this hurdle is taken out, Bitcoin bears will drive the price towards $15,500 without hassle.
Bitcoin Forecast Poll
Bitcoin Forecast Poll
Bitcoin Forecast Poll of experts somewhat worsened from the previous week as the expectations on the weekly timeframe turned bearish. Still, monthly and quarterly forecasts remained bullish. Notably, price predictions decreased significantly. The participants bet on Bitcoin's consolidation below $19,000 and do not foresee a move toward a new record high within the nearest three months.
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