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Bitcoin price could react to potential clash between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump at July Bitcoin Conference

|ByManish Chhetri

  • Mt. Gox funds movement on Wednesday may negatively impact Bitcoin's price.
  • Bitcoin Magazine reports speculation that Kamala Harris might attend the upcoming July Bitcoin Conference with Donald Trump.
  • US spot Bitcoin ETFs registered slight outflows on Tuesday.

Bitcoin (BTC) price struggles around $66,000 on Wednesday. US spot Bitcoin ETFs experienced minor outflows on Tuesday, coinciding with the continued movement of Mt. Gox funds for repayment, which could exert downward pressure on Bitcoin's price.

 

Daily digest market movers: Bitcoin declines 2.36% on Tuesday as Mt. Gox starts repayment  

  • Data from Lookonchain indicates that Mt. Gox moved 37,477 BTC, valued at $2.47 billion, on Wednesday. Since July 5, Mt.Gox has transferred 52,549 BTC worth $3.31 billion to Bitstamp, Kraken, and Bitbank for repayment. With Mt. Gox currently holding $5.95 billion in Bitcoin, this continued transfer of funds likely sparked FUD (Fear, Uncertainty, Doubt) among traders, potentially contributing to Bitcoin's price decline.
  • On Tuesday, US spot Bitcoin ETFs experienced outflows totaling $77.80 million. During this period, Grayscale (GBTC), ARK 21Shares (ARKB), and Bitwise (BITB) decreased their holdings by 404.45 BTC, 774.82 BTC, and 1,040 BTC, respectively, while Blackrock (IBIT) added 1,070 BTC. 
  • This decline suggests a slight weakening of investor confidence, potentially contributing to a temporary dip in Bitcoin's price on Tuesday. The net inflow data from ETFs is crucial for assessing investor sentiment and understanding market dynamics. Together, the 11 US spot Bitcoin ETFs currently hold reserves amounting to $53.16 billion in Bitcoin.

Bitcoin Spot ETF Net Inflow (USD) chart

  • According to Bitcoin Magazine, there is speculation that Democratic nominee Kamala Harris might share the stage with Donald Trump at the upcoming Bitcoin Conference, which is scheduled for July 25 to 27. If confirmed, her participation could set the stage for a significant showdown in the upcoming presidential race, especially amidst concerns among Democrats about Trump's growing appeal among crypto-investor voters.
  • According to CryptoQuant, UTxO Realized Price Age Distribution is a set of realized prices and age bands. The metrics help investors to overview each cohort's holding behavior by overlaying a set of different realized prices. Realized price is calculated as Realized Cap divided by the total supply.
  • In BTC's recent movement, the price briefly dipped and stabilized at nearly $65,915. This range is close to the average purchase price of $66,500 for 1-3 month BTC holders, potentially serving as a support level.
  • However, further correction could see support around the $63,800 level, reflecting the average purchase price range of 3-6 month holders.

Bitcoin UTxO Realized Price Age Distribution chart

 

Technical analysis: BTC faces rejection around the $67,000 mark

Bitcoin’s price faced resistance around the weekly resistance level at 67,209 and declined by 2.3% on Tuesday. At the time of writing, BTC retraces and trades at around $65,632 on Wednesday.

If BTC continues to retrace, it could find support at the daily level of $64,913, coinciding closely with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at $64,921, derived from the June 7 high of $71,997 to the July 5 low of $53,475. This would establish a critical zone of support that should be monitored closely.

If this area of support at $64,913 holds, BTC could rally 11% to retest its June 7 high of $71,997.

On the daily chart, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and the Awesome Oscillator (AO) are trading above their neutral levels of 50 and zero, respectively. This robust momentum signals a strong bullish sentiment in the market.

BTC/USDT daily chart

However, a close below $62,736 and a break below the ascending trendline formed by joining multiple swing lows from July 5 would break the market structure from bullish to bearish by forming a lower low on the daily timeframe. Such a scenario might precipitate a 10% crash in Bitcoin's price to retest its July 12 low of $56,405.

Crypto ETF FAQs

An Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF) is an investment vehicle or an index that tracks the price of an underlying asset. ETFs can not only track a single asset, but a group of assets and sectors. For example, a Bitcoin ETF tracks Bitcoin’s price. ETF is a tool used by investors to gain exposure to a certain asset.

Yes. The first Bitcoin futures ETF in the US was approved by the US Securities & Exchange Commission in October 2021. A total of seven Bitcoin futures ETFs have been approved, with more than 20 still waiting for the regulator’s permission. The SEC says that the cryptocurrency industry is new and subject to manipulation, which is why it has been delaying crypto-related futures ETFs for the last few years.

Bitcoin spot ETF has been approved outside the US, but the SEC is yet to approve one in the country. After BlackRock filed for a Bitcoin spot ETF on June 15, the interest surrounding crypto ETFs has been renewed. Grayscale – whose application for a Bitcoin spot ETF was initially rejected by the SEC – got a victory in court, forcing the US regulator to review its proposal again. The SEC’s loss in this lawsuit has fueled hopes that a Bitcoin spot ETF might be approved by the end of the year.

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