Bitcoin Price Prediction: BTC needs one more confirmation for a push to $22,000

• Bitcoin price is grappling with the 20-day EMA at $19,440 after a twelve-hour candlestick close above it. 
• If BTC stays above $19,440, it will likely target the $22,048 level. 
• A daily candlestick close below the range low at $17,593 indicates the start of a bearish outlook.

Bitcoin price produced a bullish candlestick over the weekend, allowing it to face off with a crucial hurdle. A breakout above this blockade could trigger a quick run-up to important levels, indicating the start of a bullish week.

Bitcoin price continues to consolidate

Bitcoin price has been consolidating since the June 18 crash, which set a swing low at $17,593. Since then, market makers have been extremely busy sweeping crucial swing lows. The most recent swing low formed on October 13 at $17,935 created equal lows and collected the sell-stop liquidity resting below all the swing lows formed after June 19. This move was an excellent place to enter a long position and book profits at $19,951, aka the range high, but the 30-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $19,440 is in the way.

Although Bitcoin price produced a twelve-hour candlestick close above it, investors need to wait for another confirmation. A successful flip and hold above this level could propel BTC to the next significant level at $22,048, provided it overcomes the $20,306 to $20,737 hurdle. 

In such a case, investors are looking at a 13% upswing in Bitcoin price from the current position.

BTCUSDT 12-hour chart

Further adding credence to a potential flip of the 30-day EMA and an uptrend is IntoTheBlock’s In/Out of the Money Around Price (IOMAP) model. The transaction data indicates that roughly  2.41 million addresses purchased nearly 1.30 million BTC at an average price of $19,184.

These investors are likely to add more to their holdings if Bitcoin price slides lower, therefore serving as a support level by absorbing the selling pressure. Compared to the “In the Money” investors, the “Out of the Money” holders are fewer and are likely to be overcome if there is a spike in buying pressure.

Since the technicals and the on-chain metrics align, there is a good chance BTC will experience a bullish week.

BTC IOMAP

While things are looking up for Bitcoin price, market participants need to pay close attention to the $18,934, which is the midpoint of the $17,917 to $19,951 range. A breakdown of this level will indicate a shift in the market structure favoring bears.

In this situation, investors should note that a sweep of the June 18 swing low at $17,593 will be a manipulation from the market makers before triggering an upswing. Therefore, a daily candlestick close below the said level instead of a liquidity run will indicate that the sellers are in control.

Such a development will invalidate the bullish thesis and trigger a further correction to $17,000 or the $15,551 support levels. Here, buyers can step up and give the uptrend another go.