Bitcoin price is poised for a decline as Mt.Gox-related transfers add to selling pressure
|- Marathon Digital Holdings (MARA) announces a $250 million private offering of convertible senior notes to buy more Bitcoin.
- Lookonchain data shows that 10 Bitcoin Spot ETFs recorded a net outflow of 4,255 BTC worth $254.17 million on Monday.
- Arkham intelligence data shows recent movements in funds from the Mt. Gox wallet.
- On-chain chain data shows negative signs for BTC, signaling a bearish trend ahead.
Bitcoin (BTC) is trading slightly down by 0.5% at $59,039 on Tuesday, struggling to rebound from a 3.6% decline on Sunday. Continued outflows from US-listed Bitcoin Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) on Monday and recent fund movements from the Mt. Gox wallet, as revealed by Arkham Intelligence data, add to the market's uncertainty. Additionally, bearish signs from on-chain data appear to be a drag on Bitcoin’s price prospects in the near-term, outweighing the move from mining company Marathon Digital Holdings (MARA), which has laid out plans to raise $250 million to acquire more Bitcoin.
Daily digest market movers: Bitcoin holds $58,000 as MARA announces $250 million funds to buy BTC
- According to Arkham Intelligence data, Mt. Gox wallets showed fund movement on Tuesday, with a wallet that previously received $2.19 billion in Bitcoin from Mt. Gox now initiating test transactions. This wallet, identified as bc1q26, is likely Bitgo, the final exchange collaborating with the Mt. Gox Trustee to distribute funds to creditors. According to Arkham, the move could be related to the distribution of funds to Mt.Gox creditors. This activity could generate FUD (Fear, Uncertainty, Doubt) among traders and potentially contribute to a decline in Bitcoin's price.
JUST IN: MOVEMENTS FROM $1.95B MT GOX BTC WALLET
— Arkham (@ArkhamIntel) August 13, 2024
A Wallet that received $2.19B Bitcoin from Mt. Gox has just initiated test transactions.
This wallet bc1q26 is likely Bitgo, the 5th and final exchange working with Mt. Gox Trustee to distribute funds to Mt. Gox creditors.
Are… pic.twitter.com/w0j2aCg2Gc
JUST IN: MOVEMENTS FROM $1.95B MT GOX BTC WALLET
— Arkham (@ArkhamIntel) August 13, 2024
A Wallet that received $2.19B Bitcoin from Mt. Gox has just initiated test transactions.
This wallet bc1q26 is likely Bitgo, the 5th and final exchange working with Mt. Gox Trustee to distribute funds to Mt. Gox creditors.
Are… pic.twitter.com/w0j2aCg2Gc
- Marathon Digital Holdings (MARA) announced on Monday a plan to offer $250 million in convertible senior notes maturing in 2031, targeting qualified institutional buyers to fund corporate initiatives and acquire additional Bitcoin.
- MARA announced that initial purchasers can acquire up to $37.5 million in notes within 13 days from the original issuance date. Under specific conditions, the company can redeem the notes for cash on or after September 6, 2028.
- Lookonchain data shows that US-listed 10 Bitcoin Spot ETFs recorded a net outflow of 4,255 BTC worth $254.17 million on Monday. Monitoring these ETFs' net inflow data is crucial for understanding market dynamics and investor sentiment. The combined Bitcoin reserves held by the 10 US spot Bitcoin ETFs stand at $54.19 billion.
Aug 9 Update:
— Lookonchain (@lookonchain) August 12, 2024
10 #Bitcoin ETFs
NetFlow: -4,255 $BTC(-$254.17M)#Grayscale(GBTC) outflows 3,090 $BTC($184.56M) and currently holds 233,840 $BTC($13.97B).
9 #Ethereum ETFs
NetFlow: +2,533 $ETH(+$6.77M)#iShares inflows 7,576 $ETH($20.25M) and currently holds 293,939… pic.twitter.com/xGXKwRLsY8
Aug 9 Update:
— Lookonchain (@lookonchain) August 12, 2024
10 #Bitcoin ETFs
NetFlow: -4,255 $BTC(-$254.17M)#Grayscale(GBTC) outflows 3,090 $BTC($184.56M) and currently holds 233,840 $BTC($13.97B).
9 #Ethereum ETFs
NetFlow: +2,533 $ETH(+$6.77M)#iShares inflows 7,576 $ETH($20.25M) and currently holds 293,939… pic.twitter.com/xGXKwRLsY8
- According to Coinglass's data, BTC's long-to-short ratio is 0.928. This ratio reflects bearish sentiment in the market, as a number below one suggests more traders anticipate the price of the asset to decline, bolstering Bitcoin's bearish outlook.
Bitcoin long-to-short ratio chart
Technical analysis: BTC shows signs of weakness
Bitcoin price has consistently faced resistance at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of $62,066, drawn from the swing high of $70,079 from July 29 to the low of $49,101 from August 5. As of Tuesday, it is trading down by 0.5% at $59,039.
If the $62,066 level continues to act as resistance, in conjunction with the broken trendline and the 100-day Exponential Moving Average at around $62,659, selling pressure could increase.
A failure to break above $62,066 might result in an almost 20% decline, potentially testing the daily support level of $49,917.
On the daily chart, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Awesome Oscillator (AO) trade below their neutral levels of 50 and zero, respectively, suggesting a strong bearish trend.
BTC/USDT daily chart
However, if Bitcoin closes above the August 2 high of $65,596, it would set a higher high on the daily chart, possibly leading to a 6% price increase and testing the weekly resistance at $69,648.
Bitcoin, altcoins, stablecoins FAQs
Bitcoin is the largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, a virtual currency designed to serve as money. This form of payment cannot be controlled by any one person, group, or entity, which eliminates the need for third-party participation during financial transactions.
Altcoins are any cryptocurrency apart from Bitcoin, but some also regard Ethereum as a non-altcoin because it is from these two cryptocurrencies that forking happens. If this is true, then Litecoin is the first altcoin, forked from the Bitcoin protocol and, therefore, an “improved” version of it.
Stablecoins are cryptocurrencies designed to have a stable price, with their value backed by a reserve of the asset it represents. To achieve this, the value of any one stablecoin is pegged to a commodity or financial instrument, such as the US Dollar (USD), with its supply regulated by an algorithm or demand. The main goal of stablecoins is to provide an on/off-ramp for investors willing to trade and invest in cryptocurrencies. Stablecoins also allow investors to store value since cryptocurrencies, in general, are subject to volatility.
Bitcoin dominance is the ratio of Bitcoin's market capitalization to the total market capitalization of all cryptocurrencies combined. It provides a clear picture of Bitcoin’s interest among investors. A high BTC dominance typically happens before and during a bull run, in which investors resort to investing in relatively stable and high market capitalization cryptocurrency like Bitcoin. A drop in BTC dominance usually means that investors are moving their capital and/or profits to altcoins in a quest for higher returns, which usually triggers an explosion of altcoin rallies.
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