Bitcoin price is close to a market top, suggest accurate technical indicator
|- Bitcoin price shows strong buying momentum, indicating a revisit to its previous all-time high at $42,000.
- BTC's on-chain transaction data shows an increase in whale activity at the current price levels.
- Pi Cycle Top indicator warns about the probability of market top.
Bitcoin price has seen a strong surge since it broke out of a descending triangle pattern on February 2. While it looks poised for higher highs, there is a slight chance a market top is near.
Bitcoin price targets new all-time highs
The bulls continue in control of Bitcoin price, pushing it to higher highs. The recent break out of a descending triangle on the daily chart suggests that BTC could rise towards $45,000.
Such an optimistic scenario is determined by measuring the height of the triangle's y-axis and adding it to the breakout point.
BTC/USDT 1-day chart
According to trading veteran Peter Brandt, FOMO will likely kick in after Bitcoin price slices through its recent all-time high. Under such circumstances, BTC could rise even higher than the descending triangle's target of $45,000.
"I am confident Bitcoin will go MUCH MUCH MUCH higher over time. I believe the bullish BTC narrative to be true. I also am confident that the period since the January 8 high is part of or all of a consolidation poised for another upward thrust," said Brandt
Despite the high probability of higher highs on the horizon, Brandt believes that a daily close below $35,450 would invalidate the bullish outlook. Interestingly enough, some technical indexes add credence to this probability.
On the vicinity of a market top
The Pi Cycle Top indicator by Philip Swift suggests that a market top might be near. The indicator consists of the 350 1-day moving average with a standard deviation of 2, and a simple 111 1-day moving average plotted against Bitcoin price chart.
Theoretically, a crossover of the 111 one-day moving average above the 350 one-day moving average has accurately forecasted the end of Bitcoin's bullish cycles over the past nine years.
Bitcoin Pi Cycle Top indicator chart
This technical indicator anticipated that Bitcoin price was bound for a steep correction in April 2013 when it rose to a high of $230. The crossover came just a few days before the actual market top when BTC was trading at $143.
Similarly, when Bitcoin topped in December 2013 at $1,135, the crossover between the 111 and 350 1-day moving averages was seen a day later. The end of the 2017 bull market was also forecasted by the Pi Cycle Top indicator exactly when Bitcoin peaked at a high of $19,640 in December of that year.
This time around, the two moving averages are converging towards each other, signaling that the top might be around the corner. The warning comes just as Bitcoin is about to retest its recent all-time high.
Market participants must be aware that a spike in selling pressure could create a double top pattern, leading to the end of the ongoing bullish cycle. But as the 40-years trading veteran said, only a decisive close below $34,450 will confirm the bearish outlook.
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