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Bitcoin Price Outlook: Will BTC ignore major macro market developments this week?

|ByLockridge Okoth

  • Bitcoin price remains southbound, steered by falling momentum and overhanging bearish activity from bears waiting to act above $65K.
  • Ahead of Hong Kong’s spot BTC and ETH ETFs going live on Tuesday, Australia could approve the spot BTC ETF in 2024.
  • Wednesday’s FOMC is likely causing crypto markets to correct before it with a bit of hope for incoming rate cuts.

Bitcoin (BTC) price will be an interesting watch this week, with increased volatility expected amid crucial events lined up in the macro market. On Tuesday, Hong Kong will be debuting its BTC and ETH ETFs while the next day will see FOMC minutes make headlines. 

Also Read:  Week Ahead: Bitcoin could surprise investors this week

Daily digest market movers: Macro developments that could move Bitcoin this week

Bitcoin price downward momentum continues to grow, unmoved by recent developments in the spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) market. Last week, FXStreet reported that Hong Kong had advanced with its spot BTC and ETH ETFs approval, set to begin trading on April 30.

Reports have also indicated that Chinese investors with Hong Kong residence permits will be allowed to buy shares in these Bitcoin ETFs. Ahead of the listing, however, a Bloomberg report has indicated expectations that the Australian Securities Exchange (ASX) will approve spot BTC ETFs before the close of the year. The report, which cited persons familiar with the matter, indicated that two Bitcoin ETF applications have already been submitted, with a third application in progress.

The two applications are from VanEck Australia and BetaShares, a local ETF-focused fund manager. Speaking to Cointelegraph, CEO of fund manager Monochrome Jeff Yew said spot BTC ETFs in Australia could bring inflows ranging between $3 billion and $4 billion within the first three years of trading.

Coming back to the US, there is speculation that Morgan Stanley has echoed that there could be “firm wide” BTC ETF approvals in May.

While these ETF-related market movers keep Bitcoiners at the edge of their seats, the market is also anticipating the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on Wednesday. This could be causing the markets to correct ahead of the meeting, and reverse back up afterwards amid hope of possible incoming rate cuts.

For the layperson, the demand for BTC could increase with more interest rate cuts. Rate cuts could increase the shine on crypto investments as investors move away from diminishing returns on traditional investments. In this regard, American multinational investment bank Citigroup says the Fed could deliver 100 BPS of total interest rate cuts in 2024.

FXStreet will bring updates following the Fed’s meeting on Wednesday and its implication on Bitcoin price.

Crypto ETF FAQs

An Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF) is an investment vehicle or an index that tracks the price of an underlying asset. ETFs can not only track a single asset, but a group of assets and sectors. For example, a Bitcoin ETF tracks Bitcoin’s price. ETF is a tool used by investors to gain exposure to a certain asset.

Yes. The first Bitcoin futures ETF in the US was approved by the US Securities & Exchange Commission in October 2021. A total of seven Bitcoin futures ETFs have been approved, with more than 20 still waiting for the regulator’s permission. The SEC says that the cryptocurrency industry is new and subject to manipulation, which is why it has been delaying crypto-related futures ETFs for the last few years.

Bitcoin spot ETF has been approved outside the US, but the SEC is yet to approve one in the country. After BlackRock filed for a Bitcoin spot ETF on June 15, the interest surrounding crypto ETFs has been renewed. Grayscale – whose application for a Bitcoin spot ETF was initially rejected by the SEC – got a victory in court, forcing the US regulator to review its proposal again. The SEC’s loss in this lawsuit has fueled hopes that a Bitcoin spot ETF might be approved by the end of the year.

Technical analysis: Bitcoin price caught in a range

The new weekly close has confirmed the $65,600 level as new resistance for Bitcoin price, trapping BTC between two key levels, $65,600 to the upside and the pool of liquidity below residing between $60,600 and $59,005. The odds lean in favor of further downside on the one-day timeframe.

Looking at the Relative Strength Index (RSI), this momentum indicator is sliding south and showing more downside potential for the pioneer cryptocurrency as buying pressure continues to dwindle. Its subjugation below the mean level of 50 shows growing bearish sentiment amid calls for further drops.

The Awesome Oscillator (AO) indicator corroborates this outlook, with its red histograms in negative territory accentuating the bearish outlook. Based on the volume profile, bulls are only waiting to interact with BTC once Bitcoin price drops to $50,000. This is seen with the yellow spikes on the volume nodes just above the $50,000 psychological level.

Increased selling pressure could see Bitcoin price dip into the liquidity pool between $60,600 and $59,005. If this level fails to hold, Bitcoin price could approach $50,000 before a possible recovery.

BTC/USDT 1-day chart

On the other hand, resurgence by the bulls could see the Bitcoin price recover. A flip of the weekly close of $65,600 into support would be a step in the right direction, but the bearish thesis will only be invalidated once BTC decisively closes above $72,000. This would mean the bulls have overcome bearish activity from sellers waiting to interact with BTC near the $70,000 psychological area.

In a highly bullish case, the Bitcoin price could reclaim its $73,777 peak, and possibly record a new all-time high above it. This would constitute a climb of approximately 20% above current levels.

Notice the DXY Compare indicator as it falls in tandem with Bitcoin price. This has often led to an opposite move from BTC. If history rhymes, Bitcoin price could be primed for a pushback.

Also Read: Expect more from altcoins with Bitcoin price stuck in range trade

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