Bitcoin fails ‘worst-case scenario’ monthly close for the first time, starts December sub-$57k
|Bitcoin (BTC) has failed to hit the November closing price demanded by one of its best-known models – but its creator is not giving up.
In a Twitter post on Dec. 1, PlanB said that he would give his floor model one more month to prove itself.
BTC floor model on probation
BTC/USD should have rounded out November in a “worst-case scenario” of $98,000, but a combination of factors conspired to produce a much lower monthly close.
At close to $57,000, the pair firmly missed its target, this translating to the first such failure of PlanB’s floor model in Bitcoin’s history.
“Floor model first misses (after nailing Aug,Sep,Oct),” he wrote.
“No model is perfect, but this is a big miss and the first in 10y! Outlier/black swan? I will give Floor model 1 more month.”
Most recently, the floor model correctly predicted the monthly closes for August, September and October, adding to hopes that six figures could enter in December.
As more traders and analysts accept the fact that the 2021 bull market may take longer than anticipated to reach its peak, PlanB reiterated that his other BTC price forecasting models remain intact.
Among them are the popular stock-to-flow-based tools, these calling for at least $100,000 as an average price between now and 2024. The expectation is still that Bitcoin will attract a six-figure price tag before the end of this year.
Unfortunate bull timing?
November’s close coincided with fresh downside pressure on Bitcoin.
Panic over coronavirus combined with Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell admitting that inflation will not be “transitory” in nature.
Sentiment likewise took a hit, dropping from “neutral” to “fear” as per the Crypto Fear & Greed Index.
Crypto Fear & Greed Index. Source: Alternative. me
PlanB’s floor model, meanwhile, has its work cut out to remain a valid price guide – in just four weeks, it predicts a BTC/USD price of $135,000.
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