Bitcoin Price Forecast: BTC turns $10,400 into support, how nigh is $11,500?

• Bitcoin weekend breakout hits a barrier under $10,600.
• BTC/USD potential ascending triangle breakout eyes highs above $11,500.
• Rejection at $10,600 could eventually lead to declines to the critical support between $10,223 and $10,358.

Bitcoin bulls overcame the stubborn resistance at $10,400 and even sustained gains above $10,500. The momentum came within a whisker of the $10,600 seller congestion zone, but the price retreated amid rising bearish pressure. At the time of writing, BTC is trading at $10,540 after holding comfortably above $10,500. The price has also continued to trade above the 50 Exponential Moving Average (EMA), suggesting more upside action.

BTC/USD 1-hour chart

According to Farmer Bluntz, a renowned cryptocurrency trader believes that Bitcoin is at the beginning of a bullish phase. He highlights the formation of an ascending triangle whose breakout has the potential of propelling the flagship cryptocurrency to highs above $11,500. 

looks to me like a lower timeframe ascending triangle breakout on $btc.

technically i feel we have to be bullish again here.

macro picture i'm unsure of now, just trading what im dealt. pic.twitter.com/4QJPCg8aGN

— ‍Farmer Bluntz‍ (@SmartContracter) September 13, 2020

Bitcoin awaits triangle breakout

Bitcoin is on the brick of a potentially massive triangle breakout. If bulls are to sustain the uptrend above $10,600, culminating in a flight above the ascending triangle, $11,000 will be a conservative target. Increased buying pressure, driven by FOMO (Fear Of Missing Out), would catapult Bitcoin above $11,500. A move like this would renew the hope of seeing Bitcoin trade above $12,000 again.

BTC/USD 4-hour chart

Meanwhile, the bellwether cryptocurrency is trading between the 50 EMA support and the 100 EMA resistance. The death cross at $11,601 paints a bearish picture for Bitcoin until a golden cross comes into the picture to invalidate the latter pattern. Besides, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) shows that the momentum has taken a hiatus, further delaying the possibility of a spike above $10,600.

Bitcoin fundamental outlook

The IOMAP metric provided by IntoTheBlock shows Bitcoin facing subtle selling pressure between $10,563 and $10,871. Based on this fundamental indicator, 502,410 addresses bought 478,490 BTC in this zone. If buyers manage to rise above this range, the largest cryptocurrency will quickly rush upwards to the next significant seller congestion zone at $11,489 - $11,818. However, buyers will have to brace for a tough fight at this range, considering the 1.42 million addresses that purchased 1.06 million BTC.

Bitcoin IOMAP chart

Regarding support, the initial anchorage provided by the 3,640 addresses with a 5,060 BTC volume is not strong enough to shield Bitcoin from the sellers' advances. In this case, it is prudent to consider the next range at $10,223 to $10,358 as formidable support. IntoTheBlock data highlights that 1.26 million addresses that attracted a volume of 782,240 BTC are currently profiting from the gains recorded in the last 24 hours.

Data by Santiment also shows that BTC holders with coins between 1,000 and 10,000 are currently buying more. In other words, whales are confident that Bitcoin will sustain the uptrend in the near term.

Bitcoin holder distribution

Technical analysis points to a possible uptrend, especially if the triangle resistance is broken. If Bitcoin hits highs above $11,000, FOMO (Fear Of Missing Out) is likely to play a part in sending the price above $11,500. Moreover, data by Santiment hints that whales are anticipating higher price actions in the coming days.