Bitcoin CME futures draw premium for the first time since FTX's collapse
|The market panic that ensued after the collapse of Sam Bankman Fried's FTX exchange in early November seems to be abating.
The three-month Bitcoin (BTC) futures listed on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME), widely considered a proxy for institutional activity, are drawing a premium over the cryptocurrency's going spot market price for the first time since FTX went bust.
The renewed premium indicates that institutional activity is no longer concentrated on the short side. The CME futures fell into a record discount in mid-November as sophisticated traders took bearish bets to hedge against a deeper FTX-induced slide in the leading cryptocurrency.
Bitcoin, however, has been more resilient than expected over the past two months, with the downside capped at around $16,000.
Basis refers to the difference between futures and spot prices. (Arcane Research/TradingView) (Arcane Research, Skew, Laevitas, CME, TradingView)
The three-month CME futures traded at an annualized premium of 0.2%, while their Binance counterparts drew a premium of 2.4%.
The CME futures term structure – the difference between futures of different maturities at a given time point – remains inverted or in backwardation, according to Arcane Research.
In other words, farther-month contracts continue to trade at prices lower than near-month contracts, an anomalous condition, considering prices are generally higher at the long end of the curve.
"While CME’s basis has recovered, the term structure remains in backwardation as institutional investors maintain a cautious view on bitcoin and less liquid further dated expiry dates," Arcane Research's Bendik. Schei and Vetle Lunde wrote in a note to clients.
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers.