Bitcoin blunders or breakthrough? – Wave-C’s final leg unfolding
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In our last update as of 7th Feb 2025, Bitcoin struggled to hold 100K, staying in the 94K–100K range for most of February 2025 as shown in the yellow box—except for a sharp breakdown in the final week. On February 21, 2025, our Wave 2 completed within a wedge formation, setting the stage for a furious Wave 3 decline. Bitcoin tumbled to a 78K low, marking Wave 3 of an ending diagonal (wedge) in Wave-C of the irregular structure that began from the 108,245 high on December 17, 2024.
11th March 2025 - Proposed Bitcoin wave path
Understanding the irregular structure: What’s next?
- Wave-B’s fake breakout (109K – January 20, 2025)
- Bitcoin trapped bulls with a new high at 109K, slightly exceeding the structure’s starting point.
- Post 109K, Wave-C turned messy, unfolding in choppy Wave 1 moves before the final wedge formation.
- Wave-3’s Sharp Drop (February 21, 2025, – 78K Low)
- Bitcoin slipped furiously in Wave-3 of the wedge during the last week of February 2025.
- Now, with March nearing its end, a similar market behavior may unfold, leading to the final Wave-5 decline.
18th March 2025 Bitcoin Wave Path - (Wave - d) is about to complete in wave 4 within wedge-C unfolding
Wave-5 breakdown: Will Bitcoin slip to 75K or 70K?
- Wave-C is an ending diagonal (Wedge Formation)
- We previously labeled this as a WXY, but it's now clear the structure follows an A-B-C formation with a 3-3-5 pattern.
- Wave-5, the last leg of the wedge, is about to unfold.
- Potential Drop to 75K–70K Before a Bullish Reversal
- Wave-3 in February 2025 saw aggressive selling.
- If Wave-5 follows similar intensity, Bitcoin could slip further toward the 75K–70K zone, where bulls might return with strong support.
19th March 2025 - Bitcoin Wave Path - (Wave-e) nearing to complete or soon to complete at 84871 Highs
Trading strategy & key levels
- Bearish Case (Wave-5 Downside)
- If Bitcoin breaks below 81K, a thrust move lower could send it toward 75K–70K.
- This could mark the final sell-off before a reversal.
- Bullish Case (Rebound After Wave-5 Completion)
- Watch for bullish signals in the 75K–70K range as the wedge completes.
- A reversal here could kickstart a massive upside rally, confirming the end of the corrective phase. In that case , we have
- Extreme Bullish Behaviour & Bitcoin can retest 109K Highs where the wedge pattern started downside
Fxstreet Image Notation WXY changed to ABC - Wave Structure (Showing Yellow Box for Wave -2 in the Wedge-C)
Conclusion: Another bloodbath or the last drop before liftoff?
Bitcoin’s irregular structure has kept traders on edge since 109K in January 2025. The messy Wave-1, sharp Wave-3 drop, and current setup for Wave-5 suggest one last major fall before a possible bullish turnaround. Will Bitcoin hit 75K–70K before reversing, or are there more blunders ahead?
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