Avalanche price could reclaim $50.00 with AVAX Durango upgrade on Fuji testnet

• Avalanche price is over 50% done with its recovery rally amid an ongoing revival recourse in the market.
• AVAX could extend the gains 20% to retake the $50.00 range high, last approached on December 24.
• The bullish thesis will be invalidated if the price decisively loses the $38.64 support level.
• Durango upgrade is scheduled for activation on the Fuji Testnet on February 13. 

Avalanche (AVAX) price is trading with a bullish bias, nurturing a recovery rally after a strong correction that started on the eve of Christmas, December 24. As altcoins take to a revival recourse, the cryptocurrency could extend the climb to fill its current market range.

Also Read: Avalanche holders brace for $345 million AVAX token unlock and Durango upgrade

Avalanche network readies for the AVAX Durango upgrade

The Avalanche network will implement the AVAX Durango upgrade on Tuesday, February 13. The ecosystem pre-released code for an upgrade to the blockchain on February 2. The upgrade is intended to activate on Fuji Testnet at 11 AM ET on Tuesday.

Along with the Durango upgrade, the network will also see the Avalanche Warp Messaging (AWM) feature go live, improving communication on-chain and across chains. Ultimately, community members will be able to enjoy a network that is not only more interconnected but also more resilient, while at the same time benefitting from the seamless interoperability of protocols on Avalanche.

Avalanche price outlook leans to the upside

Amid euphoria about the AVAX Durango upgrade, Avalanche price is trading above the 50% retracement level of $38.64. Measured from $28.03 to $49.95, the current price is above the midline of this market range, with strong support downward.

The Simple Moving Averages (SMA) are also inclined north, suggesting this is the path with the least resistance. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is also northbound, pointing to rising momentum after it crossed above its signal line (yellow band). The position of the RSI at 65 also shows there is more room north before AVAX can be considered overbought.

Increased buying pressure could see Avalanche price rise 20% to fill the market range at $49.95. In a highly bullish case, the gains could extend for the price to hit $54.92, levels last seen around May 2022. This would constitute a 35% climb above current levels.

AVAX/USDT 1-day chart

On-chain metrics supporting Avalanche price bullish outlook

The social dominance and social volume metrics for AVAX have eased, suggesting calm in the market, which could bode well for the Avalanche price. Santiment analysts say that when an altcoin experiences high rates of mainstream attention, the fear of missing out (FOMO) tends to lead to increased volatility causing a premature topping out of price.

AVAX Santiment: Social dominance, Social volume

Also, the percentage of stablecoin total supply held by whales with more than $5 million USD is also rising, showing increasing buyer power. Specifically, the significant accumulation of stablecoins by whales indicates they are waiting to buy AVAX, showing a bullish outlook for the market.  The Tether (USDT) market capitalization is also rising, corroborating the assumption as it indicates intention to buy.

AVAX Santiment: Percentage of stablecoin total supply held by hales with more than $5 million USD, USDT market capitalization

On the flipside, if traders cash in on the gains made so far, the Avalanche price could drop below the 50% Fibonacci, to test the $32.08 support. In a dire case, the slump could send AVAX price into the supply zone turned bullish breaker between $26.56 and $29.34. A break and close below the midline of this order block at $28.03 would confirm the continuation of the fall, potentially going as low as the 50-day SMA at $25.03.