Yen slides as IMF cuts Japan’s growth estimate
|The Japanese yen has posted sharp losses on Wednesday. In the European session, USD/JPY is trading at 152.67, up 1.06% at the time of writing. The yen is down 2.1% this week and has plunged 6.3% in October.
IMF slashes Japan’s growth forecast
The International Monetary Fund slashed its 2024 growth forecast for Japan to just 0.3%, down sharply from the 0.7% forecast in June. This is the lowest estimate since 2020, during the Covid-19 pandemic which severely impacted the economy. The IMF highlighted the “fading of a one-off boost” in tourism and disruptions in auto supply chains. Japan’s economy grew 1.7% in 2023, aided by a strong increase in tourism.
The IMF said it expects the economy to rebound in 2025 and expand 1.1% as private consumption and wage growth improve, assuming that the Bank of Japan continues to raise rates “toward a neutral setting of about 1.5%.”
The BoJ raised interest rates out of negative territory in July to the current rate of 0.25%. The markets are expecting further hikes but the central bank has been very cautious and wants to see evidence of sustainable inflation at 2% before making additional hikes. This has made the BoJ an outlier among major central banks, most of which are in a rate-cutting cycle in response to falling inflation. Japan releases Tokyo Core CPI, a key inflation indicator, on Thursday. The indicator is expected to ease to 1.7% in September, down from 2% in August.
The BoJ meets on Oct. 30-31, right after a general election on Oct. 27. The Bank will likely maintain policy settings but the markets will be keeping a close eye on the quarterly projections for inflation and growth.
USD/JPY Technical
-
USD/JPY has pushed above several resistance lines today and the next resistance line is 153.19.
-
150.93 and 150.66 are providing support.
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers.