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Analysis

What's next for commodity prices as traders await Fed's march FOMC meeting? [Video]

Its official – “A New Era of Macro” is here and it will dominate every narrative of the global economy over the next decade. 

To quote analysts at GSC Commodity Intelligence – macro opportunities are everywhere and they are here in abundance. That’s one of the most lucrative trends of the current financial climate that we find ourselves in right now! 

And guess what? This week is about one thing and one thing only: It’s all about the macroeconomics with trader’s attention firmly focused on the U.S Federal Reserve. 

In December, traders started pricing in around six rate cuts for 2024 after Fed Chair Jerome Powell signalled that officials will begin winding down rates from a 22-year high. Those comments spurred a widespread market rally that saw everything from the metals to agricultural commodities skyrocket to all-time record highs. 

But after a series of hotter-than-expected inflation readings this quarter – an interesting debate is raging into whether the Fed will cut interest rates in June as Wall Street currently predicts and how many cuts to expect in 2024. 

As Federal Reserve officials gather for their March meeting, the focus isn’t on Wednesday decision for interest rates, but on what may happen months from now.  

Clues on the timing and scope of rate cuts could come from the Fed’s so-called dot plots – a quarterly visual depiction of individual officials’ economic and interest-rate forecasts. 

With the economy staying strong and inflation pressures still sticky, there’s going to be a lot of information embedded in those dots – which may ultimately determine the tone and market sentiment for the rest of the year. 

During his testimony earlier this month, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell told the Senate Banking Committee that the central bank was getting close to the confidence it needs to start lowering interest rates. 

Comments, which ignited a scorching rally sending Gold prices to a new all-time record high within striking distance of $2,200 an ounce and Silver prices blasting above the key $25 an ounce mark for the first time in 2024. 

The bullish momentum also split over into other Commodities with Palladium, Platinum, Copper, Uranium and Crude Oil prices – soaring to fresh multi-month highs. 

But the real star performer this month has been Cocoa. 

Last week, Cocoa prices soared over 25% to reach a new all-time high of $8,100 per tonne – surpassing the Commodity's previous peak set nearly 50 years ago. The uptick in prices continued on Monday with Cocoa breaching new historic high of $8,493 per tonne. 

And this could just the beginning! 

Cocoa prices are now up 112% from their opening price of sub $4,000 per tonne at start of this year and have more than doubled in the short space of two-months. 

But more impressively, Cocoa prices have now tallied up a staggering gain of over 240%, from this time last year, when prices were trading at $2,495 per tonne. 

Where are prices heading next? Watch The Commodity Report now, for my latest price forecasts and predictions:
 

 

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