'USD is the key to understanding markets in 2017' - Raymond A. Merriman

RAYMOND MERRIMAN
PROFILE
• Current Job: President at The Merriman Market Analyst
• Career: Holds a CTA (Commodities Trading Advisor) title. Editor of the MMA Cycles Report, a monthly market advisory newsletter. Has been in the markets since 1978.

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Working from the premise that all human activity works in conjunction with certain immutable laws of time and space, The Merriman Market Analyst utilizes advanced research techniques to uncover patterns and trends that you can use to understand the present; and, from this method of understanding, gain valuable insight into the future.

This interview is centered on the MMA's annual Forecasts Book, written by Raymond A. Merriman since 1976, one of the most unique, affordable, and accurate glimpses into the near future. Utilizing the study of cycles and geocosmic factors, this annual Forecasts book outlines forthcoming trends pertaining to political, economic, and financial markets throughout the world.
 

With all what happened last year, it seems we are entering a new era, do you confirm?

Yes, astrologically we are on the brink of beginning a new era, a powerful period between December 2017 and December 2020 that I call “The Great Reset.” That entire three-year period is a monumental transition, certainly as signified by the cosmos, and likely manifesting in terms of human activity. The logic behind the idea that an important era is ending, and a new one is beginning is scripted by the movement of certain planets through the cosmos, and their correspondence to previous periods in world history.

Does it mean that things will not change until then?

The key take away is that there is no end to the current era of political polarization and gridlock, lack of trust in governments worldwide, or improvement of world debt conditions, until or around or after January 2020. The economy, social-political arena, and hence the collective governance does not change – does not have a mandate to change via its (lack of) leadership- until then.

Does it mean the current global frustration, cynicism, and despondency over current conditions is likely to remain present?

 

Until real innovation, novelty, and the pursuit of unity associated with newness and a new era get markedly underway at the start of the next decade, yes.

But are we not already seeing demand of necessary changes to be made?

 

Yes, a collective awareness of the need for change in government(s) and/or the world economies is growing in 2017. It actually began in 2015 as a concept, but now it is beginning to take form, which will be even more apparent after winter begins in 2017. It could sweep the world as a mass movement within the next three years. Although this may be painful to go through, it also has elements of great inspiration. Central Banks, and specially the Fed, will likely be affected by these changes. The movement may also focus on the status of the U.S. Dollar as a standard world currency by – or around – 2020.

A reason for optimism then?

Yes, the cosmos begins to look a little less intense, and considerably more promising that what the world has undergone since the Cardinal Climax began in 2008. After all, Jupiter (planet of optimism) is in Libra (signs of agreements and diplomacy) for most 2017. People – and leaders – will be less obstinate, more willing to make compromises in order to move matters forward. As the separation phase of the Saturn/Neptune square got underway after September 2016, it signifies a swing in the pendulum regarding secrecy, corruption, deceptions, and dishonest behavior by public officials everywhere. In its place, we are likely to see a gradual (and even subtle) return of importance placed on such Saturn values as honesty, honor, integrity, trustworthiness, and reward for discipline and saving, as well as abiding by (versus breaking) laws and rules.

Will this be reflected in the markets?

The presence of Pluto in Capricorn introduces a financial element to the equation. The “change” of Pluto is brought about by getting rid of the old, tearing down existing structures that no longer work well, and rebuilding them so they are relevant again. However, our concern has more to do with the four D's that characterize Pluto – debts, deficits, defaults, and downgrades. To that, we can add taxes. The probability of an increase in each of these areas is greater than normal under this configuration.

The four D's together do not bode well for market sentiment...

Noted Mundane Astrologer Andre Barbault from Paris, has written that such hard aspects are often present when a shock occurs to the global financial system, or a sudden collapse of stock prices. It is associated with financial panics. In cardinal signs, such shocks may be brief, but painful nonetheless. For much of 2017, Jupiter, Uranus, and Pluto are in what we call a cardinal T-square with one another. That was also the case during the financial panic days of 2008-2010. However, it is not all that common as this brief span would indicate.

Could it be as devastating as the 2008-2009 stock market collapse?

If there is a stock market collapse in 2017, it is not likely to be as devastating. In fact, the presence of Saturn in waning trine to Uranus supports the idea that stock markets could yet move higher in 2017. This is a rare aspect. It has only occurred four times in the history of the United States stock market. We anticipate record new highs in many indices, in 2017, during this aspect, which is force December 2016-November 2017. However, once that high is in, a serious decline and a new bear market can unfold, which usually doesn't bottom until well after the aspect is completed.

Is the U.S. economy under the same aspects?

For now, we would like to point out that any transiting planet (especially Saturn) in opposition to a nation’s natal planet, represents the peak of the experience involving the natal planet. Venus and Jupiter pertain to the nation's currency and its national wealth. It measures the well-being of its economy. Thus, it is possible that the economy continues to grow and expand for much of the 2017. The value of its currency, the Dollar, may also continue higher into 2017. However, after the opposition of transiting Saturn to the USA Venus passes (it will last through November 6, 2018), a time of economic contraction can follow. We also point out that the Dollar tends to top out (and other currencies tend to bottom against it) every 16 year, coinciding with a USA presidential election and the party that wins office. For instance, the Republicans won office in the Nov 2016 election, and also 2000, 1984, 1968and 1952. When that happens, the US Dollar tops out within 6 months of January that follows the election – when the term formally begins. Thus the Dollar is due to make its 16-year cycle crest within 6 months of January 2017. So far, January 3, 2017, is the high of this cycle, and it may turn out to hold. If so, it is right on time.

Do you see big challenges ahead for Trump and the Republican-controlled Congress?

The challenges ahead loom very large. Given the nature of the very challenging geocosmic factors that will unfold in late 2017 through 2020, it will depend upon the choices he and his staff make, but the geocosmic set up in Mr. Trump's natal chart – and progressions for 2017- do not paint a path of easy choices. It will be very bumpy, as we are already witnessing. Keep in mind, the last time the Republicans controlled all three branches of the Federal government was in 1929 under Herbert Hoover. That didn’t turn out well. Herbert Hooiver was also elected President because he came from a business background, and not so much a political one, and he did not get along well with those in his own party. There are these similarities this time.

Let me guess, he may find himself in several conflicts where he says one thing and does another?

Exactly. He is, after all, a native of the dualistic sign of Gemini. He may exhibit qualities of too much or too little loyalty to others, depending on whether they support or oppose his ideas. He may exhibit qualities of being overly needy in an emotional sense in some cases, or devoid of feelings and needs regarding others in other cases.

Any critical period or date for Mr. Trump in 2017?

A total solar eclipse will occur that will cut a path of darkness across the United States on August 21, extending from the west coast through the east coast. That eclipse will fall on Donald Trump's Mars conjunct ascendant, as first identified (to me) by well-known astrologer Chris McRae. This spotlights a very significant geocosmic period for President Trump. Given that Mars is so strong in his natal chart, it is very tempting for him to act on instinct and reflex, rather than taking the time to reflect on all possible choices and consequences from his actions. If left unchecked, his impulses during this time (allow a 3-month orb, and maybe up to a year afterwards for an eclipse effect) could lead the country into a hostile and even war-like situation. This has signs of being a test to what his legacy will become.

Trump has often referred to himself as “The King of debt”. Is he willing to obligate the USA treasury to more debt?

If he follows his impulses, yes. There is a risk that his fiscal decisions are not as successful for the nation as he wants to believe, and the result could be a financial crisis for the USA, related to debt escalation, which is the very issue he campaigned to correct.

Based on geocosmic signatures, how is the Fed to face this period?

From late 2016 through the end of 2020, The Fed's astrological charts have a lot of Saturn contacts coming up, which means the Fed will be coming up for a lot of scrutiny. In terms of monetary policy, these Saturn transits suggest a tightening, via either higher rates or more stringent lending requirements, probably due to inflationary pressures. My best guess is that the Fed will tighten at first due to growing inflationary pressures and a desire to get back to normalcy, and then to revert to loosening because it fears that the tightening is contributing to an economic downturn.

Challenging times for the Fed ahead...

Indeed. Geocosmic studies indicate that the Fed may undergo major structural reforms in the next three years, starting in late 2017. Don’t be surprised if there is a strong movement to audit the Fed by this administration. Yellen and Trump’s charts are not naturally harmonious, but rather more towards being contentious.

Is the possibility of a power play with Congress or the White House elevated? 

With Mars so prominent at the same time (on Yellen's natal Sun), and the eclipse on Trump's natal Mars, this could be a very combative time between the two. If they are both mature and measured in their actions and reactions with one another, it holds the possibility of being a very innovative time instead, developing new ideas on how they can work creatively together to “Make America Great Again.”

In last year's Forecast Book you were expecting an all-time high to form in U.S. stocks from Nov 2016 and August 2017. We are in that time band now...

Yes, and our greatest concern now is that an all-time high would be completed this year and a 20-50% decline into 2018-19 could follow. Our price target for the high would go as far as 23,500 followed by a selloff back to 16,000 or lower by 2018-2019. In July (the day is mentioned in the book) there is a high probability of an important high or low forming from which the Dow reverses 10% or more. So far, the high in the DJIA is 21,169 on March 1, which is right within one of the time bands given in the book for a potential all-time high. There are a couple more coming up.

To wrap up, we ask the same question as last year – which you by the way nailed with your forecast: Where does the US dollar stay in the midst of these turbulences?

The key to understanding world financial markets in 2017 will be to understand world currency markets, and especially the U.S. Dollar. Given that the Federal Reserve Board is on track to start raising its short-term Fed Funds rate, and given that the cycle crest in the U.S. Dollar is ideally due by the end of July 2017, it is possible that high was achieved in January. If not, the next level is an overlap range between 109,43 and 113,40 and could be attained quickly if a low forms in the important geocosmic time band of February 22 – April 21.

As for the Euro, continued declines past August 2017 would indicate that problems in Europe are much deeper than thought, and the Euro could continue to plunge into 2019 +/- 1 year. However, my bias is that the Euro and British pound are making their 16.5-year lows this year. In the case of the Euro, that may have also happened in January, We will know more after we exit this powerful geocosmic time band of February 22-April 21, when many markets are apt to reverse their intermediate trends again.

 

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