USD/CHF trade idea: How to play the long term trend accelerating lower
|Strongest trend lower
Using the VolatilityMarkets software to structure a USDCHF trend following trade idea.
Part 1) Introduction
VolatilityMarkets suggests trend-inspired trades that capitalize on market trends.
In the short term USDCHF has been accelerating lower. In the long term USDCHF has been accelerating lower. With the long term trend being the stronger of the two, we propose a short trade idea with a time horizon.
Part 2) Trade idea details
2A) Trade idea graph
2b) Intraday predictions
Sell $ 354,129 USD or 3.54 lots of USDCHF, take profit at $ 0.9305 level with 25.0% odds for a $ 1,709 USD gain, stop out at $ 0.9376 with 50.03% odds for a $ 1,000 USD loss through O/N time horizon
Part 3) USD/CHF trend analysis
USDCHF last price was $ 0.934974. The long term trend accelerating lower is stronger than the short term trend accelerating lower. This trade goes short when the price was moving lower and accelerating over the past 20 days.
Part 4) USD/CHF value analysis
Over the past 20 days, the USDCHF price increased 11 days and decreased 9 days. For every up day, there were 0.82 down days. The average return on days where the price increased is 0.2969% The average return on days where the price decreased is -0.4554% Over the past 20 Days, the price has decreased by -0.86% percent. Over the past 20 days, the average return per day has been -0.043% percent.
Part 5) USD/CHF worst/best case scenario analysis
Within 1 week, our worst case scenario where we are 95% certain that this level won't trade for USDCHF, is $ 0.92727 , and the best case scenario overnight is $ 0.942678 . levels outside of this range are unlikely, but still possible, to trade. We are 50% confident that $ 0.9376 could trade and that $ 0.9305 could trade. These levels are within statistical probability.
Key takeaways
-
Price today $ 0.934974.
-
Over the past 20 days, the USDCHF price increased 11 days and decreased 9 Days.
-
For every up day, there were 0.82 down days.
-
The average return on days where the price increased is 0.2969%
-
The average return on days where the price decreased is -0.4554%.
-
Over the past 20 Days, the price has decreased by -0.86% percent.
-
Over the past 20 days, the average return per day has been -0.043% percent.
-
Over the past 20 days, The price has on average been accelerating: 0.0647 pips per day lower.
-
Over the last session, the price decreased by -15.41 pips.
-
Over the last session, the price decreased by -0.1648 %.
-
Over the last session, the price accelerated by 9.61 pips.
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers.