Unfolding wave D (alternate): Gold Elliott Wave analysis
|Last debut idea: Triangle trap
- Wave D Completion: Assumed to be completed at 2401 last time, still unfolding as a choppy complex wave which is further subdivided in corrective waves WXY (shown in Pink Color) where Wave Y is again a complex wave from the bottoms of 2304 which was made on June 26th, 2024 & subwaves are overlapping waves, best qualified as a rising wedge in current scenario.
- Resistance Zone: 2445-2455. Until this resistance zone holds, Wave D can still be assumed completed at the current high of 2443 or in the proposed zone of 2445-2455 which can be maximum stretch & may form a double top having similar highs to Wave-B.
Multiple resistances in 2445-2455 zone
- Hurdle: Significant resistance in the 2445-2455 zone poses a big challenge for gold.
Triangular pattern invalidation
- Invalidation Level: The pattern invalidates if gold moves above 2455, which was assumed as Wave B of the irregular triangular pattern topped out on May 20, 2024.
Rising wedge minimum objective met
- Objective Met: The minimum objective for Wave 5 of complex Wave Y under complex Wave D is met close to 2443 recent high for the session today, so far.
- Current Resistance: Facing hurdles in the 2445-2455 zone, traders should be cautious with long positions.
What next?
- Possible Wave E Confirmation: If gold halts in the 2445-2455 zone and starts falling from the current high of 2443, it could confirm the next Wave E of the triangular pattern has started unfolding
- Key Levels:
- Below 2405 and 2395: Confirmation of Wave E unfolding which will get a firm footing.
- Targets: Falling below 2395 could lead to a slip to 2355, and extending the fall below 2355 could reach the 2325-2335 zone, a strong support area.
Conclusion
- The current analysis suggests caution for traders holding long positions in gold, considering the significant resistance in 2445-2455 zone and potential downside targets in the unfolding Wave E scenario.
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