Understanding the Nevada senate odds, will Republicans or Democrats win?
|Nevada’s Clark County says ballot counting will stretch into next week. Let's discuss where we are and the current math.
Image from New York Times
I put together some spreadsheets based on this data.
Nevada Senate county-by-county
Image from New York Times, yellow highlights by Mish
What this boils down to
- Nevada will come down to how many net seats Masto can pick up in Carson City, Clark County (Las Vegas), and Douglas County.
- Masto needs to pick up a net of 22,596 seats
Synopsis of counted and uncounted Nevada Senate votes
Mish spreadsheet based on New York Times data
Remaining vote synopsis
- At the current rate in critical counties, Masto will not come close to picking up enough seats. Masto will get a net of 2,641 votes but needs 22,596.
- The key phrase though is "at the current rate".
- Uncounted early votes are very likely to be for Masto, especially in Clark County.
Let's assume Masto neutralizes but does not overcome Laxalt's advantage in Carson City and Douglas County.
Q: What Percentage of Mail-In Votes will Masto need in Clark County?
Masto = 69,060.
Laxalt = 46,463.
Check 69,060 + 46,463 = 115,523.
M - L = 69,060 - 46,463 = 22,597.
Masto needs 69,060 out of 115,523 to pick up the requited number of seats. Adding a bit for Douglas and Carson City, Masto need a bit more.
Let's assume Laxalt pads the area other than Clark County by about 2,000 votes
Laxalt would need about 71,000 out of 115,523.
The percentage Masto needs out of Clark County is in the range of 59.5 to 61.5 percent.
Q: Is that doable?
A: Yes
Q: Likely?
A: I do not know
Early voting
- Democrats: 153,560
- Republicans: 91,437
- Non-partisans/third-party: 88,486
Those numbers are according to the Reno Gazette.
The non-partisans will determine this.
Masto is currently getting about 51 percent. If that early vote is heavily Masto, then she will win.
What if?
As Nevada goes, so will Georgia
Any comments?
Addendum
I think New York Times percentage remaining, but not overall vote counts, are stale.
This is how NBC sees Nevada Results
Picking up 22,596 votes out of 90,686 is much more difficult than out of 115,523.
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