UK economy still faces significant challenges despite rate cut expectation
|Around 9 a.m., BoE member Dave Ramsdey shared his comments in a press conference, providing insights into the current UK macroeconomic scenario. Ramsdey's key comments indicated constraints on growth due to monetary policy, unexpected resilience in the British economy for 2023, weak productivity growth, signs of increased unemployment, and the challenge of addressing domestic inflation, particularly in services. Despite signs of a cooling economy, inflationary forces, especially in services, continue to exert influence, presenting a challenging backdrop.
Considering the implications for the British pound and the GBPUSD pair, the pivotal factor shaping the long-term trend might be predictions regarding interest rate cuts in 2024. The current market expectation is for the BoE to reduce rates by just over 50 basis points by November 2024 while the Federal Reserve is anticipated to implement nearly three cuts within the same timeframe, totaling 75 basis points. BoE's current interest rates stand at 5.25% as the Fed's rates range between 5.25% and 5.50%. The daily chart of the GBPUSD pair shows the ongoing session involving a retest of the support zone defined by the previously breached barrier. Successful defense of this support and a potential upward breakout could lead to a move toward the zone around 1.27, while a downward breakout may find major support around the 1.25-1.24 barrier.
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