Trade frictions between China and the United States are escalating again

Trade frictions between China and the United States are escalating again. The state council, China's cabinet, issued a notice that China decided to impose tariffs on us $75 billion of goods. In addition to the international trade situation, fed chairman Colin Powell's speech at the Jackson hole conference also reinforced the fed's expectations of a rate cut, with even a slight increase in the probability of a half-point cut in September.

The dollar index fell back sharply, peaking last week at 98.46, bottoming out at 97.21, supporting below the 200-day moving average of 97.00 and above the pressure around 97.60.

 

EUR/USD

Also weighing on currencies, minutes from the ECB meeting showed the central bank may need to take a combination of measures to boost the euro zone economy as growth weakens. But as the dollar fell, the euro eventually found support at 1.1050 before rebounding sharply to close at 1.1238.

The upper pressure is around the 200-day moving average of 1.1285, while the lower short-term support is at 1.1200 and the lower support is at 1.1150.

 

USD/JPY

As a safe-haven currency, the Japanese yen has greatly appreciated to 105.22, with its lower support at the integer level of 105.00, lower support around 104.50, and upper pressure at 106.00 and upper pressure at 107.00.

 

XAU/USD

The escalation of trade friction between China and the us and the expectation of interest rate cut by the us federal reserve pushed the gold price up to the 1530 line again, just one step away from the previous high of 1535. If the new high is effectively broken, the gold price can be seen to reach around 1350 with support below 1510 and below support around 1490.

 

USO/USD

Present the volatile international oil prices downward trend, on the one hand, is an accident of the EIA gasoline inventories and refined oil inventories increased, the market worried about weak demand, the formation pressure on oil prices, on the other hand, is the worsening situation in international trade, adding to global economic pessimism, further depress the crude oil demand outlook, the weaker oil prices.

The lower short-term support is at the 53.00, and the lower support is at 52.00, and the upper short-term pressure is at 55.00, and the upper pressure is near the 200-day moving average of 56.00.

This week's important economic data is worth watching, including July durable goods orders data from the United States, the second quarter GPD revision data from the United States, July PCE data from the United States, August CPI data from the euro zone and China's manufacturing PMI data. Events, mainly focus on the international trade situation and some of the fed officials' speech.

16:00 Germany's IFO business climate index for August

20:30 Preliminary monthly rate of durable goods orders in the United States in July (%)

21:45 Remarks by Mark Carney, governor of the bank of England in Frankfurt, Germany.

22:00 The voting committee of the 2019 federal reserve committee of the United States and President of the st. Louis federal reserve bank brad delivered a welcome speech on bank regulation BBS.