Tight range and rising volatility
|S&P 500 continues to trade in a narrow range ever since the share buyback blackout period mid Jun, with both supports and resistances respected. Housing data yesterday didnt lead to a surge in buying – that was up to the selling pressure to exhaust itself after breaking through 5,520 temporarily. And of course it was up to a good 5y Treasury auction (just as the day before with a 2y one).
MU earnings high expectations helped drive the market higher into the close, making for another fruitful day intraday as we wait for the inevitable range breakout. MU illustrates perfectly the rush for all things AI lasting for so long, but as soon as you look at margins and guidance not delivering NVDA style beats, the stock is immediately down. AVGO hasn‘t recovered either following its own earnings selloff, and Bitcoin chart shows we shouldn‘t celebrate easy liquidity for there is none these days, and the best US can hope for (justifiably), is serving as a safe haven for capital fleeing troubled setups elsewhere and still OK growth rate.
Leadership is narrowing, intraday volatility is rising, and yield curve is still very much inverted – but that‘s no reason to call for a recession on our doorstep.Even oil price is holding up in its narrow range, without breaking lower for now. Best though to illustrate with the call late last week for weakness in precious metals this week – let‘s check the silver chart as I called for a decline before the most significant rising support line gave way – and that‘s happening while yields aren‘t exactly rising, and copper is facing similar issues at a time when manufacturing is sputtering worldwide (unlike services). Today, inflation report positioning.
Let‘s mve right into the charts – today‘s full scale article contains 3 more of them, with commentaries.
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