The state of global trade on the eve of the us presidential election
|The outcome of the US presidential elections on 5 November will decide the extent of the protectionist turn taken across the Atlantic. However, global exports have so far resisted the rise in tariff barriers. By the end of the decade, the IMF forecasts growth in exports of goods similar to or even slightly higher than that of world GDP. Tighter protectionist measures will affect global growth, but the effects on international trade will be more nuanced.
If tariffs increase across the board – one of Donald Trump’s campaign promises – and aside from China, which would see even greater tariff hikes, the countries most directly affected will be those bordering or geographically close to the United States (see table 1).
Share of exports to the us for selected countries (June 2024)
Canada and Mexico, which export more than half of their goods to the US, equivalent to more than 20% of their GDP, would see the greatest impact, followed by Central America (Honduras, Costa Rica) and then South America. The second worst-affected group would be the United States’ major trading partners in Asia-Pacific – in particular Taiwan and South Korea, but also Australia and Japan – which export more than 10% of their goods to the US. In Europe, the proportion of goods exported to the US by Ireland, the Netherlands and the UK is above the world average, which sits between 8% and 9%. France, Spain and Germany are close to the European average (5.3%), while Eastern European countries are the ones least directly exposed within Europe.
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