The Dollar's scorecard is ugly

• The dollar remains strong.

• Gold & Silver attempt to recover from their lost ground last week.

Good Day... And a Wonderful Wednesday to you! Well, I made it through another day without any bleeding problems, so maybe, just maybe I'm on the road to recovery? I was completely taken by surprise by this event, and the fact that it had been going on for a few days... Today, is a BIG day for me, so we'll see how far along the recovery road I've gone... My beloved Cardinals found a way to scratch out a 2-1 win last night... The young kids on the team once again provided the winning margin... John Fogerty greets me this morning with his song: Centerfield... 

That song always gets me going and ready for baseball!  

Ok, no long explanation this morning to start the letter, so, let's see what happened yesterday and last night, eh?

The dollar continued to push the currencies down on its ascent to higher ground... This move puzzles the hell out of me, but it is what it is, so we deal with it, right? I mean look at the scorecard for the dollar... The election process had a curve thrown to it last week and it's now unknown who will replace the POTUS for his party. The economic data continues to falter, and show weakness... And all the talk is about the rate cuts that are coming, supposedly... India and Russia just announced that they will no longer use dollars in their terms of trade, so more de-dollarization is going on...  Now, let's look at the pros for the dollar... 

The 10-year Treasury bond has a yield of 4.25%... That's better than most countries 10-year bonds, and the U.S. stock market is still living on borrowed time... 

Well, it looks to me like the dollar should be losing ground instead of gaining ground, but then, that's just me... How about you? 

The one currency that has kicked the dollar's rear end around the room has been the Russian ruble, of course now that I've mentioned it, I've probably jinxed it... So be careful here...

Gold gained $12 yesterday, and Silver gained 10-cents... I'll let you read Ed Steer' thoughts on the goings on in the metals yesterday... Here's Ed: "I was certainly delighted, as were you I'm sure, to see both gold and silver recover smartly off their low ticks -- and close up on the day. But make no mistake about it, the collusive commercial traders were there to ensure that both didn't run away to the upside, which they would have most assuredly done if left to their own devices.

I must admit that I was surprised that 'da boyz' didn't press their advantage in either London or New York when they had both silver and gold down as much as they did -- and why they were even allowed to recover all of their earlier losses, is a mystery. This is certainly not the price action one would see in the usual 'wash, rinse & spin' cycle we've become accustomed to in the past."

Chuck again... So Gold & Silver were down at first yesterday, then rallied, and their rallies were cut short by the short paper traders... 

In the overnight markets last night, there was little to no movement in the dollar. It has slipped a little, less than 1 index point, but slipped some nonetheless... The BBDXY trades this morning at 1,256.67... It closed yesterday at 1,257.08... Gold is up $4 to start the day today, and Silver is up 8-cents, so maybe without interference we can have a good day here... 

The price of Oil has really fallen out of bed since I was gone... Apparently, it was all about the supply of Oil building, and the lack of demand, funny how supply and demand comes into play with the price of Oil, but not silver... The price of Oil gained a bit overnight, as there are now questions about just how much supply there is... Nevertheless, the price of Oil is down from earlier this month, for sure!

And the 10-year Treasury's yield is 4.25% this morning, and has been rising inch by inch in recent days, maybe the bond boys are having second thoughts about a coming rate cut? 

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) will meet next week, and this is a HUGE meeting for the BOJ and yen... You may recall how I gushed over their first rate hike, and said then that the BOJ needed to follow up that rate hike with another and soon... But they didn't, and the yen's path to glory was halted in a NY Minute... Yen has been as low as 160 to the dollar and recently it has rallied a bit, on thoughts that the BOJ was ready to hike rates again... Imagine how deadly it would be for yen if the BOJ skipped a rate hike next week?  Oh My!  

The Petrol currencies have seen better days for sure, with the only outlier being the Russian ruble... The Norwegian krone, Mexican peso, Canadian loony, have all been sold along with Oil lately... The British sterling has held its gains VS the dollar in recent trading, so I guess the Russian ruble isn't the only Petrol Currency with gains. 

The U.S. Data Cupboard doesn't have much for us today... Just some 3rd tier economic reports, and then New Home Sales will print for June... Yesterday, Existing Home Sales fell out of bed... And at the same time their prices went up! Maybe the high prices caused the Sales to falter?  

To recap... The dollar is still strong... The price of Gold & Silver is attempting to recover their lost ground... The price of Oil has fallen out of bed... The BOJ will meet next week, a BIG meeting for them... And some of the Petrol Currencies are showing the strains of the price of Oil being so weak... 

For What It's Worth... OK, for years now I've talked about how the Romans ruined the value of their currency the Denarius... And how it was eerily similar to what the U.S. was doing to the dollar... 

Here's your snippet: "History repeats. (Or it rhymes, depending on your choice of words.)

Throughout history, there has been an extraordinary tendency for governments (and cultures) to follow similar paths. Even regarding eras thousands of years apart, we see people behaving in much the same way, over and over. This is particularly true in the case of “wrong moves.” Over and over, people and their governments make the same mistakes, seemingly never learning from past errors.

Why should this be? In fact, how is this even possible? Surely, if a government in the 21st century were to make egregiously bad decisions, they are unlikely to be the same bad decisions that were made in, say, Rome, in the 4th century.

The reason, in two simple words, is “human nature.” Human nature remains the same throughout time. Two thousand years ago, governments were typically made up of egotistical, self-centred dictatorial types, who were far more concerned with their own power than in the general welfare of their people. Today, politics remains a magnet for such people. They therefore will revert to type when faced with the very same problems.

Should we cut spending to give the taxpayers a break? No, we should increase taxation and give more to ourselves.

If we spend more than we receive in taxes, should we cut back our expenditures, or should we go into debt? We’ll go into debt, and put the debt on the shoulders of the taxpayers.

If the debt grows to be beyond what can ever be repaid, should we cut back expenditures, or should we allow the economy to collapse? Well, we’re sorry to see the economy collapse, but rather than deny ourselves, get out the fiddle and let Rome burn.

The denarius was the coin of the realm during the centuries when Rome was a republic. Although the gold solidus was used as a storage of wealth, the silver denarius was equal in value to a day’s wages for a common laborer and, as such, was more useful as the primary unit of exchange. During this time, it was a stable currency. However, as Rome turned into an empire, all that conquest in foreign lands became extremely costly and it was decided that one way to offset such costs was to devalue the denarius. Each successive emperor added a bit more base metal than the previous one and, by the time of Diocletian, there was no silver in the coin at all, only bronze."

Chuck again... This is good long article, that I obviously can't copy all of it here... So you have to click the link above to read it in its entirety, which I think would behoove you to do... For it summarizes what I've been telling you for over 25 years now... 

Market Prices 7/24/2024: American Style: A$ .6598, kiwi .5895, C$ .7252, euro 1.0841, sterling 1.2904, Swiss $1.1272, European Style: rand 18.3153, krone 11.0394, SEK 10.7898, forint 362.52, zloty 3.9523, Koruna 23.4190, RUB 86.75, yen 154.54, sing 1.3445, HKD 7.8095, INR 83.23, China 7.2772, peso 18.23, BRL 5.5858, BBDXY 1,256.80, Dollar Index 104.39, Oil $77.67, 10-year 4.25%, Silver $29.27, Platinum $960.00, Palladium $940.00, Copper $4.16, and Gold... $2,413.60.

That's it for today... What a 9th inning rally last night! My beloved Cardinals have 3 wily veterans that have really fallen flat on their faces this year in helping the offense, but the young kids in the lineup keep producing, and I find that to be quite exciting... Like last night, my son Andrew and I both agreed that they needed to get Alec Burleson up to drive in the go ahead run, and they did ,and so did he! I'm sitting here watching the sunrise out of the ocean this morning, it looks like a nice breezy day outside, I can't wait to get out there! I've had to ask little Evie and brother Braden to quiet down this morning, I'm not used to having anyone awake when I write! J.D. Souther, takes us to the finish line today with his song: You're Only Lonely...  I hope you have a Wonderful Wednesday today, and please Be Good To Yourself!