Stepping into the big unknown

• Currencies & Metals get whacked on Thursday last week.

• But rally in the overnight markets last night.

Good Day... And a Marvelous Monday to you! Well, I had a great Halloween, celebrated with neighbors around a fire pit and listening to lame jokes from the Trick-or-treaters... Friday, we got fried fish from the legion hall, and half the kids were here... I lost another tooth, to the tumor that keeps spreading in my mouth... I may have a work around for that, soon, more later... The Cornelious Brothers and Sister Rose greet me this morning with their song: Too Late To Turn Back Now... 

Well, it was an awful two days to end the week last, for Gold & Silver... And the dollar, which was falling by bits and pieces until Friday, saw the BBDXY gain 6 index points on Friday... The Big News from Friday, was the jobs jamboree... In a report that was already expected to be down, from last month, the BLS reported that there were only 12,000 jobs created in Rocktober... Yes, there was the Hurricane, that disrupted the creation of jobs, but there was also the labor impasse at Boeing... The report was supposed to be around 110,000 down from 233,000 the previous month, so somewhere in the calcs, they lost 100,000 jobs that were supposed to be created in Rocktober... 

I don't know what this does to the proposed rate cut by the Fed/ Cabal/ Cartel.... it could exacerbate it, or it could get them to want to wait until they get a clear picture of labor... (Not that they can ever really get one of those given the BLS trumped up labor reports) 

The dollar bugs were all over the report thinking that the Fed Heads will want a clearer picture of the labor market, and therefore postpone the rate cut... I guess we'll all find out later this week when the Fed Heads get together for a two-day meeting after the election... 

Gold & Silver got whacked by a Mack Truck of short paper trading on Thursday last week... Gold lost $43, and Silver lost $1.14... It was an ugly day, for these two metals... And one that I quite frankly had started to believe was in the past... But NOOOOOOOO! Gold then followed up Thursday's whacking by losing $7.90, and closing the week at $2,735.40, and Silver lost 20-cents on Friday to end the week at $32.41... 

I could go on util I was blue in the face talking about the how the short paper traders brought Gold & Silver to their knees on Thursday, but I won't... I'll just move along, because there's nothing, I can do about it, and besides I don't need to be getting my Blood Pressure spiking! 

The price of Oil remained in the $69 handle to end the week, and the 10-year's yield continued to rise, ending the week at 4.39%... Remember what I said about the 10-year's yield rising to 4.50%.... On its way! 

In the overnight markets last night... Well, proving once again that Friday's lunge in the dollar was nothing more than PPT interference, as the dollar plunged again in the overnight markets... The BBDXY is down over 7 index points this morning, as the toss-up election is weighing heavily on the dollar.... Why? Because, as I've told you for years now, Traders do not like unknowns... And tomorrow's election is a BIG UNKNOWN! Gold recovered a bit overnight gaining $7 in the early trading. Silver has gained 39-cents to start the day... So, these buyers don't care about the unknown, they just know that whoever wins will continue the spending spree, and ramp up inflation... 

On Bloomberg.com they just can't seem to get the story right regarding why Gold got whacked last Thursday... They seem to think that it was traders taking profits, after Gold hit a new all-time high... $43 dollars of profit taking? C"Mon give me a break! This outfit, and Kitco.com just won't got down the dark side road, that points out manipulation... But i do! So, you can thank me later for that! HA! 

The price of Oil bumped higher overnight to trade this morning with a $71 handle... Seems our friends (NOT!) at OPEC announced that their output/ production hikes will not take place for the time being... And then Iran began to talk about revenge VS Isarel, and that really got Oil moving higher... And the Fed must have been in the bond market this morning, because the 10-year's yield dropped to 4.30% overnight... The Fed Heads had to be shocked and awed when they saw the 10-year's yield rise to 4.39% last Friday.... I'm just saying... 

I don't have any other articles to share with you this morning, as all the news is about the election tomorrow, and what to expect... Which I find to be silly, since no one really knows that to expect... So, we'll just head to the Big Finish and go from there today...

The U.S. Data Cupboard this week has Rocktober Factory Orders this morning, and then it goes dark until the 7th, when the two-day FOMC meeting adjourns... I'm still on the fence about the FOMC meeting this week... On one side I see the FOMC cutting rates again, and on the other side, I see the FOMC waiting for a clearer picture of the labor market...  

To recap... The dollar got extra help to end the week last week... The PPT must have been in to prep the dollar ahead of countdown time for the U.S. election that has many unknowns, and has the dollar running for cover this morning... Gold & Sliver got whacked last Thursday, but are back on the rally tracks this morning... The FWIW article goes through the chances of a heated/ contested transfer of power and that's a BIG UNKOWN! Welcome to November, my most disliked month... UGH!

Here your snippet: "he scenario of another contested presidential race riven by violence looms as an unpriced risk for investors who have long counted on US institutional integrity as a foundation for the nation’s economic strength.

Owning the world’s dominant currency has helped hold down US borrowing costs and the prices of commodities from oil to iron, along with conferring the geopolitical power of cutting American rivals out of the global financial system. Underpinning the dollar’s dominance, according to Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and their predecessors: the rule of law and institutions that transcend individual politicians.

Here's why Dollar dominance is in question

In the countdown to US election day, one fear that’s looming for some investors is a degradation of that respect. It comes amid doubts about former President Donald Trump’s willingness to concede should he lose to Vice President Kamala Harris. Trump not only continues to insist that the 2020 election was stolen from him, he recently claimed that the 2021 transition was “love and peace” despite the historic storming of the US Capitol by his supporters. The insurrection resulted in death and destruction in the American legislature’s main building.

The biggest fear this time around: a fundamental reappraisal by global investors of confidence in US institutions. That’s in the context of the US being the largest net debtor in the world, a reflection of the trillions of dollars foreign governments, funds and individuals have plowed into the $28 trillion US Treasuries market and $61 trillion stock market, along with corporate bonds and other securities.

“If there’s a real question about the effective peaceful transfer of power, it could be very unsettling — not just for our investors but the business and economic activity here,” former Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin said on a Zoom call organized by the Business & Democracy Initiative Wednesday. “The strength of the dollar does depend on respect for our economy, for rule of law, and very importantly” on the Fed retaining its independence, he said."

Chuck again.. And I wish, and hope and pray that we have a peaceful transfer of power all the way through to the certification on Jan 6... James Rickards doesn't think it will work out peacefully... And fears of a contested election, has the dollar on the skids this morning... And as far as Gold Goes this morning, there's an old saying the markets that is: "Buy the rumor, sell the fact"... And I think this is what has Gold on the rally tracks this morning.

Market Prices 11/4/ 2024: American Style: .6608, kiwi .5990, C$ .7190, euro 1.0908, sterling 1.2983, Swiss $1.1582, European Style: rand 17.5313, krone 10.9596, SEK 10.6777, forint 374.08, zloty 3.925, koruna 98.72, RUB 98.72, BBDXY 1,256.41, Dollar Index 103.69, Oil $71.44, 10-year 4.30%, Silver $32.80, Platinum $1.001.00, Palladium $1.104.00, Copper $4.40, and Gold... $2,756.42.

That's it for today... Now tomorrow... IF there is a Pfennig, it will be later than usual, as I will be at the Polls exercising my civic duty when the Polls open tomorrow morning... If I get in there and out in reasonable time, then I will get back here to write... If there are delays, then I'll say "punt"... What was the best lame joke you heard last Thursday? I heard this one.. Where do you get dragon milk?  From a 3-legged cow!  OK, so that was the best one I heard, it was a weak year for wit... The weather has been nice, chilly in the morning and night, and nice during the day... Well, it's almost a month away... Alex and Grace's wedding... It'll be on Pearl Harbor Day... I need for my health to remain strong for that day... Gerry & The Pacemakers take us to the finish line today with their great 60's song: Ferry Across The Mersey... Funny, I mentioned Alex this morning, and that's the song that I used to sing to him to get him to fall asleep when he was a toddler.... I hope you have a Marvelous Monday today, and please Be Good To Yourself!