South Africa 2024 presidential election scenario analysis
|Summary
Next up on the 2024 global election calendar is South Africa. Voters in Africa's most industrialized nation will head to the polls May 29 amid a backdrop of local economic stagnation and a potential desire for policy change. While the range of potential election outcomes is wide, this report focuses on three of the more plausible outcomes and the local financial market reaction in each scenario. In our view, the African National Congress (ANC) is likely to lose its legislative majority, but the magnitude of ANC support could determine if South Africa continues on a path of reform pursuit or slips into full-blown crisis.
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