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Analysis

Small business optimism takes a step back in August

Summary

Small business inflation is receding, but so is labor market health

Small business owners appear to be more preoccupied with worsening labor market conditions and dimming sales outlooks than they are looking forward to incoming rate cuts. The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index dropped to 91.2 in August, completely erasing July’s gain and taking some shine out of the prior four-month upswing. As nonfarm payrolls continue to show a moderation in hiring, hiring plans trended lower and the net share of small businesses actually adding headcounts reached its lowest reading in two years. The uncertainty index also continued to climb as firms face an uncertain public policy landscape post-November. On the bright side, inflation’s descent appears intact. The share of small businesses raising selling prices in August reached its lowest level since January 2021.

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