RBNZ rate decision: NZD closing in on resistance
|RBNZ expected to hold
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) is widely expected to keep its Official Cash Rate (OCR) on hold at 5.5% for the final policy meeting of 2023 tomorrow at 2:00 am GMT, a move that marks a fourth consecutive meeting on hold.
As you can see from the image below, the implied probability for tomorrow’s meeting is for the OCR to remain unchanged with one 25bp rate cut currently priced in by around mid-2024. All 21 economists surveyed by BBG and all 28 economists surveyed by Reuters unanimously forecast that the central bank will hold the line. Consequently, market focus will be directed to the post-rate statement, with market participants monitoring for any language change, particularly regarding the outlook for rate cuts. RBNZ Governor Adrian Orr will also take the stage at the post-meeting press conference an hour later (3:00 pm GMT).
NZD/USD nearing fibonacci confluence
The New Zealand dollar is up more than 5.0% on the month against its US counterpart, notching up its largest one-month gain since November 2022. This almost one-sided advance has seen the NZD/USD chalk up four back-to-back days of gains and land daily price within striking distance of what is often referred to as an ‘alternate’ AB=CD bearish formation at $0.6148: a 1.272% Fibonacci projection ratio. Joining this level is a 200% extension ratio at $0.6150, a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement ratio at $0.6173, a 50.0% retracement ratio at $0.6156, as well as a resistance level at $0.6171. This area boasts sizeable technical confluence and offers traders/investors a resistance base to work with between $0.6173 and $0.6148.
NZD/USD Daily Chart:
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers.