Price pressures continue to ease in UK
|Notes/observations
- Gilt yield lower as UK Shop Prices and UK grocery inflation ease.
- Quiet EU session as participant await key inflation and growth data later in the week.
Asia
- Japan Jan National Headline CPI data stays above target (YoY 2.2% v 1.9%e); JGB 2-year yields rose to their highest level since 2011; end of negative rates in sight???
Global conflict/tensions
- Paris proposal on hostage negotiations; Hamas received proposal for 40-day halt in all military operations. Proposal allows gradual return of displaced civilians to North Gaza except men of military age. Would allow exchange of Palestinian prisoners for Israeli hostages at a ratio of 10 to one.
Europe
- UK Feb BRC Shop Price Index Y/Y: 2.5% v 2.9% prior (lowest retail inflation since Mar 2022).
Americas
- Fed's Schmid stated that saw no need to preemptively adjust policy and in no hurry to halt balance sheet runoff.
- US Treasury Sec Yellen stated that US economic growth had been a "key driver" of better than expected global growth.
- Commerce Sec Raimondo stated that leading edge companies sought >$70B from Chips Act. Believed US to make 20% of leading edge chips by end-decade.
Speakers/fixed income/FX/commodities/erratum
Equities
Indices [Stoxx600 +0.03% at #, FTSE +0.07% at 7,689.57, DAX +0.41% at 17,495.45, CAC-40 -0.03% at 7,927.20, IBEX-35 -0.34% at 10,104.05, FTSE MIB +0.27% at 32,647.00, SMI -0.20% at 11,429.80, S&P 500 Futures +0.19%].
Market focal points/key themes: European indices open mixed with a bias to the downside, but later swung to trage generally higher; among better performing sectors are technology and materials; sectors inclined into the red include health care and financials; mining subsector outperforming following bounce in iron ore prices; CRH to acquire remaining interest in Adbri; JCDecaux considering sale of its APG/SGA stake; focus on release of US durable goods orders later in the day; earnings expected in the upcoming US session include Lowe’s, American Tower, Bank of Montreal and AutoZone.
Equities
- Consumer discretionary: Casino Guichard Perrachon [CO.FR] +55.0% (Paris Commercial Court’s approval of the accelerated safeguard plans for Casino), Puma [PUM.DE] +0.5% (earnings; outlook), Edenred [EDEN.FR] -4.5% (earnings; acquisitions).
- Consumer staples: Eurofins Scientific [ERF.FR] -11.5% (earnings).
- Financials: Munich Re [MUV2.DE] +0.5% (earnings; guidance; buyback).
- Healthcare: Smith & Nephew plc [SN.UK] -1.0% (earnings).
- Real Estate: SBB [SBBB.SE] -4.0% (earnings; no dividend).
- Telecom: Bouygues [EN.FR] +6.5% (earnings).
Speakers
- Sweden Central Bank (Riksbank) Gov Thedeen stated that the most recent CPI data did not change the picture of inflation moving in the right direction. Inflation did not need to come down exactly to 2% for easing to begin.
- UK Chancellor of the Exchequer (Fin Min) Hunt upcoming budget speech said to expected to cut employee national insurance by at least 1% and freeze fuel duty; Hunt to announce a tax on vapes in his Budget deter children from picking up habit & raise money.
- China PBOC Working Meeting said to note it would use monetary tools in full and use them well. To urge more financial support to tech following a working meeting.
Currencies/fixed income
- USD price action remained subdued as market participant awaited key data later in the week. Dealers noted that PCE index due for release on Thursday could prompt the Fed to potentially further undermine markets' expectations for an interest-rate cut.
- EUR/USD at 1.0860 area with focus on upcoming inflation and growth data out of the EU region on Thursday & Friday.
- USD/JPY drifted lower after Japan Jan National CPI data came in hotter than expected as dealers salivated that end of negative rates could be in sight.
Economic data
- (NO) Norway Q1 Consumer Confidence: -26.6 v -29.7 prior.
- (FI) Finland Jan House Price Index M/M: -2.9% v -1.1% prior; Y/Y: -5.6% v -5.6% prior.
- (FI) Finland Feb Consumer Confidence: -9.5 v -9.1 prior; Business Confidence: -11 v -12 prior.
- (DE) Germany Mar GfK Consumer Confidence: -29.0 v -29.0e - (SE) Sweden Jan Household Lending Y/Y: 0.3% v 0.4% prior.
- (FR) France Feb Consumer Confidence: 89 v 92e.
- (TW) Taiwan Jan Export Orders Y/Y: +1.9% v -3.6%e.
- (TW) Taiwan Q4 Current Account Balance: $34.8B v $28.7B prior.
- (TW) Taiwan Jan M2 Money Supply Y/Y: 5.4% v 5.3% prior; M1 Money Supply Y/Y: 3.6% v 3.1% prior.
- (HK) Hong Kong Jan Trade Balance (HKD): +3.6B v -35.5Be; Exports Y/Y: 33.6% v 22.4%e; Imports Y/Y: 21.7% v 22.8%e.
- (EU) Euro Zone Jan M3 Money Supply Y/Y: 0.1% v 0.3%e.
- (AT) Austria Feb Manufacturing PMI: 43.0 v 43.0 prior (19th straight contraction).
Fixed income issuance
- (ID) Indonesia sold total IDR23.9T in 3-year and 6-year Retail bonds.
- (ID) Indonesia sold total IDR24.0T in bills and bonds.
- (FR) France Debt Agency (AFT) opened its book to sell EUR-denominated 30-year bond via syndicate; guidance seen +6bps to Oats.
- (SK) Slovakia Debt Agency (Ardal) opened its book to sell EUR-denominated 10-year bonds via syndicate; guidance seen +115bps to mid-swaps.
- (NL) Netherlands Debt Agency (DSTA) sold €2.0B vs. €1.5-2.0B indicated range in 3.25% Jan 2044 green DSL bond; Avg Yield: 2.819%.
- (ZA) South Africa sold total ZAR3.9B vs. ZAR3.9B indicated in 2040, 2044 and 2048 bonds.
- (UK) DMO sold £900M in 0.125% Mar 2039 inflation-linked bonds (UKTi); Real Yield: 1.076% v 1.265% prior; bid-to-cover: 3.48x v 3.17x prior.
- (IT) Italy Debt Agency (Tesoro) sold total €5.0B vs. €5.0B indicated in 6-month bills (2 tranches).
Looking ahead
- (NG) Nigeria Central Bank (CBN) Interest Rate Decision: Expected to raise Interest Rate by 250bps to 21.25%.
- 05:25 (EU) Daily ECB Liquidity Stats.
- 05:30 (CH) Switzerland to sell 3-month Bills.
- 05:30 (DE) Germany to sell €1.0B in 0.00% Aug 2050 green Bunds.
- 05:30 (HU) Hungary Debt Agency (AKK) to sell 3-Month Bills.
- 05:30 (PL) Poland to sell 2026, 2029 and 2033 Bonds (4 tranches).
- 05:30 (EU) ECB allotment in 7-Day Main Refinancing Tender (MRO).
- 06:25 (BR) Brazil Central Bank Weekly Economists Survey.
- 06:30 (BR) Brazil Jan Current Account Balance: -$5.3Be v -$5.8B prior; Foreign Direct Investment (FDI): $4.5Be v -$0.4B prior.
- 07:00 (MX) Mexico Jan Trade Balance: -$2.4Be v $4.24B prior.
- 07:00 (BR) Brazil mid-Feb IBGE Inflation IPCA-15 M/M: 0.8%e v 0.3% prior; Y/Y: 4.5%e v 4.5% prior.
- 07:00 (RU) Russia announcement on upcoming OFZ bond issuance (held on Wed).
- 08:00 (HU) Hungary Central Bank (MNB) Interest Rate Decision: Expected to cut Base Rate by 100bps to 9.00%.
- 08:00 (UK) Daily Baltic Dry Bulk Index.
- (NG) Nigeria Central Bank Interest Rate Decision.
- 08:30 (US) Jan Preliminary Durable Goods Orders: -5.0%e v 0.0% prior; Durables (Ex-Transportation): 0.2%e v 0.5% prior; Capital Goods Orders (non-defense/ex-aircraft): 0.1%e v 0.2% prior; Capital Goods Shipments (non-defense/ex-aircraft): 0.2%e v 0.0% prior.
- 08:40 (UK) BOE’s Ramsden.
- 08:55 (US) Weekly Redbook LFL Sales data.
- 09:00 (US) Dec FHFA House Price Index M/M: 0.3%e v 0.3% prior; Q/Q: No est v 2.1% prior.
- 09:00 (US) Dec S&P/CoreLogic House Price Index (20-city) M/M: 0.20%e v 0.15% prior; Y/Y: 6.00%e v 5.40% prior; House Price Index (overall) Y/Y: No est v 5.14% prior.
- 09:00 (HU) Hungary Central Bank (MNB) post rate decision statement.
- 09:05 (US) Fed’s Barr.
- 10:00 (US) Feb Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index: -8e v -15 prior.
- 10:00 (US) Feb Consumer Confidence: 115.0e v 114.8 prior.
- 10:30 (US) Feb Dallas Fed Services Activity: No est v -9.3 prior.
- 11:00 (US) Treasury announcement on upcoming bill issuance.
- 13:00 (US) Treasury to sell 7-Year Notes.
- 14:00 (US) Fed Discount Minutes.
- 16:30 (US) Weekly API Oil Inventories.
- 19:30 (AU) Australia Jan CPI Y/Y: 3.6%e v 3.4% prior.
- 19:30 (AU) Australia Q4 Construction Work Done: 0.6%e v 1.3% prior.
- 20:00 (NZ) Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) Interest Rate Decision: Expected to leave Official Cash Rate (OCR) unchanged at 5.50%.
- 20:10 (JP) BOJ Outright Bond Purchase 5~10 Years; 10~25Years and 25Years~ maturities.
- (US) Michigan Democratic and GOP Primary.
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