Plethora of ECB speak continues the need for rate hikes

Notes/observations

- German July GFK consumer confidence registered its 1st drop in 9-months as country struggles to battle recession, leading the decline among major European members (yesterday’s IFO survey hit 6-month lows and back in May the Q1 final GDP revision put Germany into a technical recession).

- Reports circulated that ECB officials are weighing a faster reduction of their bond portfolio.

- Second day of ECB Sintra Conf in Portugal in focus for rate color, with pre-conf TV comments already from de Guindos, Centeno, Muller and Vujcic, Scicluna and Vasle. Debate remains between doves and hawks on Sept decision, with broad agreement for July hike.

- Expected to hear from all 4 major Central Bank heads as part of the conference. Fed’s Powell at 09:30 ET. ECB’s Lagarde, BOJ’s Ueda and BoE’s Bailey to speak, times unclear.

- No new updates out of Ukraine/Russia following mutiny turmoil over weekend.

- Weakness seen in semiconductor chip stocks across US, EU and Asia following US consideration of new curbs on AI chip exports.

- Asia closed higher with Nikkei225 outperforming at +2.0%. EU indices are +0.3-0.7%. US futures are -0.1% to -0.5%. Gold -0.1%, DXY +0.2%; Commodity: Brent -0.3%, WTI -0.3%, TTF -2.2%; Crypto: BTC -0.5%, ETH -1.0%.

Asia

- Australia May CPI Y/Y: 5.6% v 6.1%e; adds to speculation the RBA to keep rates unchanged at next week’s policy meeting.

- China May Industrial Profits Y/Y: -12.6% v -18.2% prior.

- Japan Top FX Diplomat Kanda reiterated monitoring FX with 'high' sense of urgency. Would respond appropriately to excessive FX moves and take appropriate action if there were any excessive moves.

- US govt said to consider new curbs on AI chip exports to China. Commerce Department could act as soon as early July to halt the shipments of chips.

Europe

- Italy PM Meloni's govt confirmed Panetta had been named new Bank of Italy Gov.

Americas

- Pres Biden stated that the US economy was "so strong now" he did not expect a recession.

Energy

- Weekly API Crude Oil Inventories: -2.4M v -1.2M prior.

Speakers/fixed income/FX/commodities/erratum

Equities

Indices [Stoxx600 +0.42% at 454.81, FTSE +0.39% at 7,490.25, DAX +0.67% at 15,952.75, CAC-40 +0.67% at 7,264.04, IBEX-35 +0.51% at 9,440.75, FTSE MIB +0.18% at 27,451.00, SMI +0.34% at 11,180.20, S&P 500 Futures -0.24%].

Market focal points/key themes: European indices opened generally higher and maintained the upbeat tone through the early hours of trading; sectors leading the way into the green include technology and telecom; among lagging sectors are materials and consumer discretionary; chipmakers experience weakness following reports US considering new restrictions of chip exports to China; Arkema proposes to acquire stake in PIAM; Irish government divests part of its stake in Allied Irish Bank; focus on upcoming speech by Fed Chair Powell at ECB forum later in the day; earnings expected in the upcoming US session include General Mills and Micron Technologies.

Equities

- Consumer discretionary: GVS [GVS.IT] -5.0% (analyst action - cut to Sell at Goldman Sachs).

- Energy: Siemens Energy [ENR.DE] +4.5% (analyst action - cut to Neutral at UBS).

- Financials: Partners Group [PGHN.CH] +1.5% (analyst action - raised to Buy at CitiGroup), Credito Emiliano [CE.IT] +3.0% (analyst action - raised to Buy at Jefferies).

- Healthcare: Bayer [BAYN.DE] -1.5% (Parkinson's disease trial), Genmab [GMAB.DK] -1.5% (Genmab and AbbVie Announce Positive Topline Results from Phase 1/2 EPCORE NHL-1 Trial).

- Technology: ASML [ASML.NL] -1.0%, Infineon [IFX.DE] -1.0% (sector weakness from US considering new curbs on AI chip exports to China; Could be announced in early July), Sage Group [SGE.UK] +4.0% (analyst action).

- Materials: DSM-Firmenich [DSFIR.NL] +3.5% (prelim Q2 pro-forma adj EBITDA €400-420M citing weakening of the vitamin markets which further deteriorated during June), Boliden [BOL.SE] -1.0% (analyst action - raised to Buy at Neutral), Arkema [AKE.FR] -1.0% (proposes to acquire Glenwood Private Equity’s 54% stake in PI Advanced Materials (PIAM) for €728M EV).

-Telecoms: Vodafone [VOD.UK] +1.5% (analyst action - raised to Neutral at Exane BNP Paribas).

Speakers

- ECB's de Guindos (Spain) stated that it had more ground to cover on rates; July rate hike was set, but Sept move would be data depended.

- ECB's Lane (Ireland, chief economist) stated that was not reasonable to price in rapid rate cuts; Would have sustained period of restrictive rates; September decision remained uncertain.

- ECB's Centeno (Portugal, dove) noted that over-tightening was not an acceptable approach; Definitely getting close to the terminal rate.

- ECB's Muller (Estonia) stated that it must use what tools are in the kitbox to get inflation lower.

- ECB’s Vujcic (Croatia, hawk) noted of a high probability for Sept hike but decision to be data dependent.

- ECB's Vasle (Slovenia) stated that it needed convincing that rate hike beyond July meeting was NOT needed.

- ECB's Scicluna (Malta) noted that it would see on rates after July meeting; Must be mindful of impact of rate hikes.

- ECB officials said to be considering faster reduction of bond portfolio. Some members were open to idea while others wanted to phase out reinvestments. No decision in the General Council has taken place and no decision was imminent.

- Italy PM Meloni noted that ECB rate hike policy was not the correct approach; Subsequent hikes might harm the economy.

- Austria WIFO Think Tank Quarterly Economic Forecasts maintained its 2023 GDP growth forecast at 0.3% while cutting the 2024 GDP from 1.8% to 1.4%. It maintained the 2023 CPI forecast at 7.5% while raising the 2024 CPI from 3.5% to 3.8%.

- South Africa Central Bank (SARB) Gov Kganyago stated that its Staff model stills saw ZAR currency (Rand) as undervalue.

Currencies/fixed income

- ECB members out inforce touted their views on the need for rate hikes. Members saw a July rate hike as ‘done’ and that Sept decision to be data dependent. EUR/USD little phased by the verbal barrage with the pair steady at 1.0950 area.

- USD/JPY pair saw the Yen weaken above 144 level despite continued verbal intervention by Japanese officials.

- Softer-than-expected monthly CPI data from Australia added to the bets for the RBA to keep rates unchanged at next week’s meeting.

Economic data

- (DE) Germany July GFK Consumer Confidence: -25.4 v -23.0e.

- (SE) Sweden May Household Lending Y/Y: 1.5% v 1.9% prior.

- (NO) Norway May Retail Sales M/M: 1.2% v 0.2%e.

- (DK) Denmark May Retail Sales M/M: 1.8% v 1.9% prior; Y/Y: -0.4% v -5.8% prior.

- (FR) France June Consumer Confidence: 85 v 84e.

- (ES) Spain May Adjusted Retail Sales Y/Y: 6.0% v 5.0%e; Retail Sales Y/Y (unadj): 6.6% v 5.1% prior.

- (CH) Swiss June Expectations Survey: -30.8 v -32.2 prior.

- (EU) Euro Zone May M3 Money Supply Y/Y: 1.4% v 1.5%e.

- (IT) Italy May PPI M/M: -3.1% v -6.5% prior; Y/Y: -6.8% v -3.5% prior.

- (AT) Austria June Manufacturing PMI: 39.0 v 39.7 prior (11th straight contraction).

- (IT) Italy Jun Preliminary CPI M/M: 0.0% v 0.3%e; Y/Y: 6.4% v 6.7%e.

- (IT) Italy Jun Preliminary CPI EU Harmonized M/M: 0.1% v 0.1%e; Y/Y: 6.7% v 6.8%e.

- (IS) Iceland June CPI M/M: 0.9% v 0.4% prior; Y/Y: 8.9% v 9.5% prior.

Fixed income issuance

- (VN) Vietnam Finance Ministry sold total VNM4.05T vs. VNM5.0T indicated in 10-year, 15-year and 20-year bonds.

- (IN) India sold total INR320B vs. INR320B indicated in 3-month, 6-month and 12-month bills.

- (IT) Italy Debt Agency (Tesoro) opened its book to sell EUR-denominated float rate note (CCTeu); guidance seen bps to +116bps to 6-month Euribor.

- (UK) DMO sold £2.75B in 3.75% Jan 2038 Gilts; Avg Yield: 4.463% v 4.1420% prior; bid-to-cover: 2.26x v 2.41x prior; Tail: 0.3bps v 0.4bps prior.

- (SE) Sweden sold SEK10B vs. SEK10B indicated in 3-month bills; Avg yield: 3.6611% v 3.421% prior; Bid-to-cover: 1.51x v 2.02x prior.

- (NO) Norway sold NOK2.0B vs. NOK2.0B indicated in 3.0% Aug 2033 Bonds; Avg Yield: 3.63% v 3.49% prior; bid-to-cover: 2.27x v 2.3x prior.

- (IT) Italy Debt Agency (Tesoro) sold total €4.0B vs. €4.0B indicated in 6-month and 12-month bills.

- (GR) Greece Debt Agency (PDMA) sold €487.5M vs. €625M indicated in 6-month Bills; Avg Yield: 3.65% v 3.50% prior; Bid to cover: 2.55x v 2.13x prior.

Looking ahead

- (PT) Portugal Debt Agency (IGCP) to hold exchange auction.

- 05:25 (EU) Daily ECB Liquidity Stats.

- 05:30 (EU) ECB allotment in 3-month LTRO tender.

- 05:30 (PL) Poland to sell 2025, 2028 and 2033 bonds (4 tranches).

- 05:30 (ZA) South Africa announces details of next bond auction (held on Tuesdays).

- 06:00 (IE) Ireland May Retail Sales Volume M/M: No est v 2.8% prior; Y/Y: No est v 7.5% prior.

- 06:00 (IT) Italy Apr Industrial Sales M/M: No est v -0.3% prior; Y/Y: No est v 4.3% prior.

- 06:00 (CZ) Czech Republic to sell Bonds (3 tranches).

- 06:00(EU) ECB announcement on TLTRO maturity payments.

- 06:30 (UK) BOE’s Pill (chief economist) in Sintra.

- 06:45 (US) Daily Libor Fixing.

- 07:00 (RU) Russia to sell OFZ Bonds.

- 07:00 (US) MBA Mortgage Applications w/e Jun 23rd: No est v 0.5% prior.

- 07:30 (BR) Brazil May Total Outstanding Loans (BRL): No est v 5.363T prior; M/M: No est v -0.1% prior; Personal Loan Default Rate: No est v 6.2% prior.

- 08:00 (UK) Daily Baltic Dry Bulk Index.

- 08:30 (US) May Preliminary Wholesale Inventories M/M: -0.1%e v -0.1% prior; Retail Inventories M/M: No est v 0.2% prior.

- 08:30 (US) May Advance Goods Trade Balance: -$93.6Be v -$97.1B prior (revised from -$96.8B).

- 09:30 (EU) Fed Chair Fed's Powell, ECB's Lagarde, BOJ's Ueda, BOE's Bailey: Sintra.

- 10:30 (US) Weekly DOE Oil Inventories.

- 11:00 (EU) ECB Chief Lagarde.

- 11:30 (US) Treasury to sell 2-Year FRN Reopening.

- 11:30 (US) Treasury to sell 17-Week Bills.

- 12:00 (RU) Russia May Industrial Production Y/Y: 5.7%e v 5.2% prior.

- 12:00 (RU) Russia May Real Retail Sales Y/Y: 8.1%e v 7.4% prior.

- 12:00 (RU) Russia May Unemployment Rate: 3.3%e v 3.3% prior; Apr Real Wages Y/Y: 11.7%e v 2.7% prior.

- 12:00 (FR) ECB's Villeroy (France) in Paris.

- 13:30 (BR) Brazil May Total Federal Debt (BRL): No est v 6.033Te.

- 13:00 (US) Treasury to sell 7-Year Notes.

- 17:00 (KR) South Korea June Business Manufacturing Survey: No est v 73 prior; Non-Manufacturing Survey: No est v 78 prior.

- 19:50 (JP) Japan May Retail Sales M/M: +0.8%e v -1.1% prior (revised from -1.2%); Y/Y: 5.2%e v 5.1% prior (revised from 5.0%);; Dept. Store, Supermarket Sales Y/Y: No est v 4.8% prior.

- 21:00 (NZ) New Zealand June ANZ Business Confidence: No est v -31.1 prior; Activity Outlook: No est v -4.5 prior.

- 21:30 (AU) Australia Q1 Job Vacancies Q/Q: No est v -1.5% prior.

- 21:30 (AU) Australia May Retail Sales M/M: 0.1%e v 0.0% prior.

- 22:00 (NZ) New Zealand to sell NZ$400M in 2028, 2034 and 2051 bonds.

- 23:35 (JP) Japan to sell 2-Year JGB Bonds.