Morning briefing: Euro rose past 1.0700, led by the first round of the French parliamentary election
|The first round of French Election results led the Euro to rise past 1.07 and the Dollar Index to slip below 106. Dollar-Yen and EURJPY are headed towards 162 and 173/174 respectively and can see bullishness in the absence of any intervention from the BOJ. Aussie & Pound continue to trade sideways within 0.6580-0.6720 and 1.26-1.28 respectively. USDCNY can still rise towards 7.28 while above 7.26. EURINR can trade within 89.00-90/91 region for some time. USDINR can continue to trade within its range of 83.67-83.40/30 in the near term. Watch out for US ISM manufacturing data release scheduled today.
The US Treasury yields have risen sharply on Friday. If this bounce sustains, a further rise is possible this week to test their resistance. The price action thereafter will need a close watch. The US PCE for June dipped to 2.56% (YoY) from 2.68% in May. The German yields are moving up in line with our expectation. The outlook is bullish and more rise can be seen from here. The 10Yr and 5Yr GoI are inching higher in line with our expectation. They can rise further this week.
Dow Jones, DAX and Shanghai looks range-bound. Nifty has dipped a bit from its all time high of 24174. It has to rise past 24200 to strengthen the bullish momentum. Else can witness further fall from here. Nikkei continues to rise and remains bullish for the near term.
Crude prices appears range bound. Gold, Silver and Copper have resistance overhead. Gold can trade sideways below its resistance for a while. Whereas Silver and Copper would remain vulnerable to a fall while the resistance holds. Natural Gas has dipped towards 2.50 which if holds, can produce a short term rise towards 2.70-2.75.
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