Morning briefing: Euro holds within the 1.0700 – 1.0850 range
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The Dollar Index has risen a bit as the Euro dipped on concerns of the current Hung parliament and political tensions. Overall, both are holding well within the range of 104.50-106.50 and 1.07-1.0850/09 respectively. Powell kept a cautious stance in his senate testimony, not impacting the markets much. Dollar-Yen and EURJPY are headed towards 162 and 175 respectively. Aussie & Pound needs to see a strong break past 0.6750 and 1.2850 to test 0.68 and 1.30 respectively else can see a decent dip from current levels. USDCNY is likely to continue to rise to 7.28 while above 7.27. EURINR has risen but could limit its upside to 91 from where a dip to 89.50-89 could be possible in the medium term. USDINR can continue to trade within its range of 83.40-83.50/60 in the near term.
The US Treasury yields and German yields have risen and look bullish for the near term. The10Yr GoI can dip in the near-term to 6.96% before rising back again while the 5Yr GoI has broken below support and could be bearish for a few sessions unless an immediate pull back is seen.
Dow Jones and Dax slipped further yesterday. Bias for Dow remains bullish while above 39600 while Dax may bounce back from 18200-18000 support zone. Nifty continues to hold on to its bullish move and could soon test 24500-24700 from where a corrective dip can be possible. Nikkei looks bullish for a test of 42000-43000 while Shanghai could trade above 2900 just now but needs to break above 3000 to turn bullish for the near term. A break below 2900 would trigger a fall to 2850-2800.
Crude prices have fallen further below immediate support levels, and the near-term outlook appears bearish as the decline persists. Gold has risen slightly and may target the 2450-2460 range while above 2340/60. Silver is hovering above its support level and is likely to trade sideways between 30.5-31.5 for some time. Copper and Natural gas continue their downtrend, with Copper potentially bearish to 4.5-4.4 and Natural gas aiming for 2.1-2.0 in the near term.
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