Morning briefing: EUR/USD has an interim resistance at 1.0870/80
|Dollar Index tested 104.02 yesterday but has currently recovered back from the low. It still needs to rise past 104.50 to negate a fall below 104. EURUSD has an interim resistance at 1.0870/80, a break past which can take it higher towards 1.09/0950. Yen and Yuan strengthened against Dollar significantly as the pairs USDCNY, USDJPY and EURJPY tested the lows of 7.2193, 151.93, and 164.83 before recovering from there. The Aussie and Pound can test 0.6500-0.6400 and 1.28 on the downside before attempting to rise back. USDINR if fails to break below 83.65, can increase the chances of seeing a rise towards 83.80 or higher in the coming weeks. EURINR needs to rise past 91, else it is likely to fall towards 90.50. Watch out for the US PCE data release scheduled today.
The US 2Yr yield has bounced from its support as expected and can see more rise. At the far-end the yields remain mixed. But supports are there to push them also higher in the coming days. The US Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) data release today will be important to watch. The German yields have come down again. But support can limit the downside and keep the broader uptrend intact. The 10Yr and 5Yr GoI are coming down as expected. The view is bearish, and they can fall more.
Dow Jones attempted to recover but failed and came off sharply, which continued to keep it vulnerable to see a fall to 39500. DAX may hold above the support at 18200-18000 and rise back up towards 18600-18800. Nifty has recovered a bit but needs to overcome the resistance overhead to avoid the danger of falling again. Nikkei too has recovered slightly but could face rejections from 39000. Shanghai remains bearish for the near term.
Crude prices have recovered sharply after stronger than expected release of US GDP, which came at +2.8% vs market expectation of +2.0%, which is a positive news for oil demand. Gold and Silver have bounced back slightly but bias remains bearish to see a further fall. Copper has recovered a bit but needs to surpass 4.2 to strengthen the bullish case. Natural gas has declined again but is likely to get support at 2.0-1.9.
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